RIGLRigel Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
The Read
Rigel Pharmaceuticals has historically experienced a median absolute stock move of about 19%.
The schedule
- Tue5Jan
Potential FDA action on a competing therapy in the ITP/wAIHA space poses a direct threat to Rigel's market share and future revenue trajectory.
- Sun10Jan
A critical clinical update for Rigel's early-stage pipeline, providing a catalyst distinct from the commercial TAVALISSE franchise.
- Sun10Jan
High-impact clinical catalyst as Rigel provides a substantive update on the Phase 3 fostamatinib program in warm autoimmune hemolytic anemia (wAIHA), with a favorable read sending the stock toward $36.00 and a disappointing or ambiguous update driving it toward $36.00.
- Tue2Feb
The Q3 print will offer updated insights into full-year commercial execution and the impact of milestone payments.
- Tue9Feb
Year-end earnings and the initial 2027 guidance will be heavily scrutinized for TAVALISSE growth projections and pipeline spend.
- Tue4May
Q1 2027 results will provide the first look at performance under the new year's guidance and the evolving competitive landscape.
Past
- Tue4Aug
Q2 2026 earnings will test whether the recent VEPPANU licensing momentum translates into fundamental revenue stability or if baseline TAVALISSE sales are lagging.
- Wed15Jul
With shares trading near $42.56 and an RSI of 82.2, there is significant overhang risk of an opportunistic equity raise to bolster the $24.4M cash position.
- Tue5May
Actual outcome: Bull · $28.30 at outcome
Rigel initially reported a Q1 earnings miss, with EPS of $0.44 falling short of the $0.74 estimate alongside $58.8 million in total revenues. However, shares surged well past the bull target following the announcement of an exclusive global licensing agreement with Arvinas and Pfizer for VEPPANU, an oral PROTAC drug for breast cancer, which overshadowed the earnings shortfall and drove strong bullish momentum.
Q1 2026 results and commentary on TAVALISSE demand, cash flow, and R&D spend, with a clean beat and constructive tone supporting a rebound toward $25.00 and another miss or cautious outlook pulling shares toward $25.00.
- Tue3Mar
Actual outcome: Bear · $28.44 at outcome
Rigel missed Q4 earnings estimates, reporting $1.14 per share against an expected $1.33, which overshadowed record TAVALISSE product sales of $65.4 million. This bottom-line miss undermined the bull case for a valuation re-rating based on sustained profitability, causing the stock to drop significantly below the bear floor by the run date.
Market validates the strong profitability and revenue growth observed in H2 2025. Consensus expects sustained TAVALISSE sales acceleration and positive net income. A strong beat on EPS/Revenue and optimistic 2026 guidance will drive a re-rating of the stock's low P/E.
