SJMHFSJM Holdings Limited
The schedule
- Tue10Nov
SJM historically issues its Q3 trading update in mid-November. Investors will heavily scrutinize adjusted EBITDA margins for sequential progress. Given the structural 9.88x Net Debt to EBITDA overhang, we lean bearish with a fallback of $0.12 from $0.14, reserving a $0.17 target for a significant operational beat.
- Mon15Feb
Facing a staggering 9.88x Net Debt/EBITDA ratio, the market will increasingly price in capital structure risks as 2027 progresses. Any forced debt refinancing or equity dilution represents a major left-tail risk. We model a highly dilutive base-case fallback of $0.08, whereas navigating without severe dilution could yield a $0.15 target from a $0.12 anchor.
- Thu4Mar
The FY 2026 earnings release will serve as a definitive check on SJM's turnaround timeline. Lingering unprofitability at satellite casinos and elevated CapEx drag form our base-case fallback of $0.05 from $0.08. A miraculous return to positive net income could re-rate the stock to $0.11.
- Tue1Jun
Mainland China's summer travel and visa policies (IVS) are critical for Macau operators, particularly amid evolving US-China trade dynamics under President Trump. We assign a balanced 50% probability to this macro catalyst. Supportive travel easing could drive shares from $0.05 to a $0.08 target, while stricter capital outflow controls would test a $0.03 fallback.
Past
- Thu8Oct
October's Golden Week is a premier gauge for Macau's mass-market visitation. Soft macro conditions in mainland China present a challenging setup for SJM's Grand Lisboa Palace. Our base case is a muted volume print dragging the stock from $0.16 to $0.14, while a stronger-than-expected recovery offers a target of $0.19.
- Tue25Aug
SJM Holdings' board meets to approve H1 2026 results and weigh an interim dividend. With free cash flow at negative $420M and interest coverage at a distressed 0.62x, skipping the dividend is the base case. We model a fallback to $0.16 on continued debt drag, though a surprise GGR margin beat could push shares to $0.22.