SPIRSpire Global, Inc.
The Read
Spire Global's stock rose about 6% after strong Q4 2025 growth and margin gains eased revenue concerns, then held steady despite losing a major contract due to offsetting Munich facility plans, and gained about 3% on Q1 2026 results beating guidance and a new data partnership.
The schedule
- Fri30Oct
Potential disruption from deep-pocketed competitors expanding into low Earth orbit (LEO) data applications.
- Mon8Feb
Q3 earnings with early insights into 2027 pipeline conversions and capital expenditure requirements.
- Sun14Feb
Full-year 2026 results and the definitive test of the company's path to operating cash flow positivity.
- Thu13May
First-quarter update tracking defense and commercial data adoption against refreshed 2027 guidance.
Past
- Sun20Sep
Anticipated decision regarding the renewal or expansion of government radio occultation data contracts.
- Tue11Aug
Actual outcome: Bear
Spire Global reported Q2 2026 earnings of -$0.78 per share, matching the estimate, but the stock fell 5.9% post-earnings. The mixed results, combined with a lack of strong forward guidance, led to investor caution, despite the NOAA contract award and revenue reaffirmation, which failed to offset the bearish sentiment.
Q2 2026 earnings release focusing on ARR stability across maritime, aviation, and weather data segments.
- Wed15Jul
Actual outcome: Bear · $10.54 at outcome
The stock fell 22.7% following the event, hitting below the bear floor of $13.00. Despite positive news such as new product launches, executive appointments, and satellite launches, the market reacted negatively, likely due to ongoing concerns about the company's cash burn and the dilutive capital raise announcement, which overshadowed the positive developments.
Potential execution of a dilutive equity or convertible debt offering to address persistent cash burn.
- Thu14May
Actual outcome: Bull · $19.13 at outcome
Spire Global reported Q1 2026 results that met EPS estimates and exceeded the company's own guidance for revenue and adjusted EBITDA. Management's reiteration of its full-year outlook, combined with a new data integration partnership with Amadeus, reassured investors and drove the stock 5% higher by the outcome date.
Q1 2026 results will test whether Spire can re‑accelerate ARR and narrow cash burn; a credible path to sustainable growth and improving free cash flow could break the stock out toward $21.00, while another quarter of revenue contraction or heavy capex could pull it back toward $21.00.
- Fri1May
Actual outcome: Mixed · $18.49 at outcome
Despite news that Spire Global lost a major contract equivalent to nine months of 2025 revenue, the stock's reaction was muted, rising just 1.7% by the outcome date. The negative impact of the lost contract was likely offset by the company's subsequent announcement of a new satellite manufacturing facility in Munich aimed at supporting sovereign space-based intelligence capabilities, resulting in mixed, relatively flat price action.
Binary award risk around a potential US government/DOD contract for satellite-powered weather and maritime intelligence, with upside to $19.75 if Spire converts HyMS and recent technical milestones into a meaningful multi‑year award, and downside to $15.50 if awards are delayed, sized below expectations, or steered to larger incumbents.
- Thu19Mar
Actual outcome: Bear · $9.55 at outcome
Spire Global met EPS estimates at -$0.61, but the stock fell below the $10.00 bear floor as the results failed to provide the revenue stabilization or strong 2026 guidance needed to reverse the momentum loss from 2025. While the company announced operational milestones, including the arrival of ten satellites at a launch site and new sea ice mapping capabilities, these developments were overshadowed by fundamental concerns regarding ARR growth and the quality of the stabilization.
The primary focus will be on Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) growth and revenue stabilization after a sharp sequential decline in Q3 2025. Weak guidance for 2026 would confirm a loss of operating momentum.
