Case studies

TRGP: Guidance Raise Powers Midstream Breakout | +7.23% in 13 Days

TARGA RESOURCES CORP.$252.44 on May 7→$270.69 on May 20, 2026

The opportunity

Heading into its Q1 2026 earnings on May 7, 2026, Targa Resources Corp. (TRGP) was trading at a premium valuation of $252.44, right near its 52-week highs. While the broader market debated whether seasonally softer natural gas liquids (NGL) prices would drag on performance, we focused on the underlying strength of Permian Basin throughput. Strong upstream activity from peers suggested that midstream volume and fee growth remained highly robust, setting up a high-stakes catalyst for the upcoming EBITDA guidance update.

The forecast

Our analysis mapped out a clear path: if Targa could defend or expand its multiple by showing a credible path to flat-to-up Adjusted EBITDA relative to 2025's record levels, the stock could target a bull price of $265.50. Conversely, any unexpected crack in Permian volume growth or a lower fee-based mix threatened to pull shares down to a bear floor of $243.00. The key was whether Permian NGL volumes and fractionation spreads were tracking ahead of plan.

The payoff

The payoff materialized quickly by the May 20, 2026 target date. Although TRGP initially delivered a mixed Q1 2026 report—missing consensus estimates on both earnings and revenue—the underlying fundamentals told a far stronger story. Targa reported record first-quarter net income and raised its full-year 2026 financial outlook, driven by surging NGL transport volumes. Investors shrugged off the immediate top-line miss to focus on the upgraded guidance, propelling the stock to an exit price of $270.69—surpassing our bull target and delivering a realized return of +7.23% over the 13-day hold horizon.

TRGP

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CPAY: Earnings Beat Drives Surge | +7.4% in 8 Days

CORPAY, INC.$305.75 on May 7→$328.23 on May 15, 2026

The opportunity

Heading into the Q1 2026 print, CPAY faced a wall of worry regarding SME spending and competitive intensity in the B2B payments space. While the company had a history of double-digit growth, recent peer volatility left the stock trading at 305.75 as investors questioned if the organic volume growth could withstand a shifting macro environment.

The forecast

The forecast centered on a bull target of 326, contingent on a clean beat and a confident update to the 2026 outlook. Analysts anticipated a post-print range between 292.00 and 326.00, with the path to the upper bound requiring management to defend margins and prove that the Corporate Payments segment could still outpace the broader market.

The payoff

The payoff arrived on May 15, 2026, as CPAY surged to 328.23 following a dominant Q1 performance. The company reported 25% revenue growth and a 46% year-over-year explosion in Corporate Payments, prompting management to raise full-year guidance. This fundamental strength triggered a 7.35% realized return, clearing the initial bull target within the 8-day window.

CPAY

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CVS: Earnings Beat & Guidance Raise | +12.2% in 3 Days

CVS HEALTH CORPORATION$80.69 on May 5→$90.55 on May 8, 2026

The opportunity

Heading into the Q1 2026 print, CVS was testing its 52-week high of $83.90 while the market weighed a crucial tug-of-war. Investors were laser-focused on whether the integration of GLP-1 prescription volumes through Caremark could offset the rising tide of Medicare utilization costs within the Aetna division. With shares trading at $80.69, the setup hinged on management’s ability to leverage a recent CMS rate tailwind to stabilize margins and provide clear forward guidance.

The forecast

The path forward was binary: a confident full-year guide and improved medical cost ratios would clear the way to a bull target of $85.50. Conversely, if retail margin erosion or persistent insurance cost pressures surfaced, we anticipated a valuation reset toward a floor of $78.50. The primary catalyst remained the Q1 operational update, specifically how Aetna managed its Medical Loss Ratio (MLR) amid shifting subscriber costs.

The payoff

CVS delivered a decisive beat on May 6, reporting revenues exceeding $100.00 billion and adjusted EPS of $2.57—significantly topping the $2.21 consensus estimate. The stock didn't just hit the bull target; it surged to $90.55 by May 8 as management raised full-year 2026 guidance. This rally, driven by effective medical cost controls in the Aetna division that addressed key market concerns, secured a 12.2% return in just four days, outperforming the initial $85.50 target by 5.9%.

CVS

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TXT: Q1 2026 Earnings & FY2026 Guidance Update | +7.5% in 3 Days

TEXTRON INC.$88.14 on Apr 28→$94.72 on May 1, 2026

The opportunity

Our system surfaced TXT on 2026-04-28 as liquidity and positioning shifted ahead of Q1 2026 Earnings & FY2026 Guidance Update. With bull probability marked at 55%, the setup wasn’t generic “hope” — it was a disciplined read that the tape was mispricing how this catalyst could resolve.

The forecast

We projected rotation toward $92.50 on the bull path — the level where we'd expect repricing if the bullish thesis on Q1 2026 Earnings & FY2026 Guidance Update played out versus the bear floor ($85.00). Snapshot-day entry on an end-of-day basis: $88.14 — the same anchor we score on Top Ideas.

The payoff

Textron’s Q1 EPS came in exactly at the Street estimate ($1.31 vs. $1.31), so there was no clear earnings beat or miss from the headline number. The stock reaction was muted because the quarter looked broadly in line with expectations, with investor focus centered on whether Aviation margins and defense backlog would show enough early FY2026 progress to justify upside, while the only confirmed corporate update around the event was a routine quarterly dividend declaration.

TXT

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ALL: Weathering the Storm | +6.4% in 34 Days

THE ALLSTATE CORPORATION$205.03 on Mar 12→$218.23 on Apr 15, 2026

The opportunity

On March 12, ALL sat at 205.03 as the market awaited the Q1 2026 catastrophe loss assessment. While the crowd braced for winter volatility, we flagged an asymmetric opportunity: a benign weather outcome would confirm an improving combined ratio and trigger a breakout above 52-week resistance.

The forecast

The forecast centered on the March 25 assessment with a bull target of 218. The path relied on the market pricing in improved underwriting margins ahead of the Q1 earnings report, assuming minimal catastrophe losses would provide the fundamental fuel needed to clear technical hurdles.

The payoff

By April 15, ALL reached 218.23, delivering a 6.4% return. The company reported estimated February catastrophe losses of just $140.00 million, signaling fundamental stability. Although institutional selling from major holders like CalPERS eventually capped the momentum, the stock successfully hit the bull target window.

ALL

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ESE: Industrial Execution Defies Budget Fears | +15.2% in 10 Days

ESCO TECHNOLOGIES INC.$268.99 on Mar 30→$309.80 on Apr 9, 2026

The opportunity

We flagged ESE at 268.99 just ahead of a high-stakes US Government budget review. While the broader market braced for potential contract setbacks under shifting federal priorities, the setup highlighted a significant Divergence Driver: the company's revenue and backlog growth appeared to be decoupling from macro fears.

The forecast

The forecast established a bull target of 290, banking on the strength of industrial execution to offset federal timing uncertainties. Analysts looked for the stock to stay within a standard expected move of 14.39, with the bull case underpinned by the belief that the company's core utility and stealth programs would remain insulated from budget volatility.

The payoff

By the April 9 target window, the feared procurement risks failed to materialize into a negative catalyst. Instead, ESE benefited from constructive news flow, including the launch of the Spark P2 handheld diagnostic device by its Doble subsidiary. The stock climbed to 309.8, representing a 15.17% realized return and finishing well above the initial bull target.

ESE

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CDE: Annual Reserve and Resource Update | +18.2% in 6 Days

COEUR MINING, INC.$16.17 on Mar 26→$19.11 on Apr 1, 2026

The opportunity

Our system surfaced CDE on 2026-03-26 as liquidity and positioning shifted ahead of Annual Reserve and Resource Update. With bull probability marked at 75%, the setup wasn’t generic “hope” — it was a disciplined read that the tape was mispricing how this catalyst could resolve.

The forecast

We projected rotation toward $19.09 on the bull path — the level where we'd expect repricing if the bullish thesis on Annual Reserve and Resource Update played out versus the bear floor ($16.67). Snapshot-day entry on an end-of-day basis: $16.17 — the same anchor we score on Top Ideas.

The payoff

Coeur Mining delivered strong fundamental updates, reporting Q4 revenue up 120% and adjusted EPS up 218%, while successfully completing its New Gold acquisition and updating its mineral reserves. The company also issued robust 2026 guidance projecting $2.00 billion in free cash flow, launched a $750.00 million share buyback, and initiated a dividend. Despite these highly bullish operational results, the stock's upside was constrained by sharp declines in underlying gold and silver prices stemming from broader macroeconomic tensions.

CDE

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HLT: Hospitality Giant Surges on MGM Integration | +3.62% in 5 Days

HILTON WORLDWIDE HOLDINGS INC.$292.58 on Mar 20→$303.16 on Mar 25, 2026

The opportunity

On March 20, 2026, HLT traded at $292.58 under technical pressure, with an RSI of 35.6 signaling oversold conditions. While a high debt-to-equity ratio kept investors sensitive to potential delays in high-margin revenue, the market overlooked a prime setup ahead of a major catalyst: management's upcoming integration and loyalty program update with the MGM Collection.

The forecast

Our analysis mapped a path toward a bull target of $305.00, contingent on management demonstrating strong cross-pollination efficiency with the MGM partnership. Clear execution on this high-margin integration was expected to trigger a rapid technical rebound from oversold levels, offsetting debt concerns and restoring investor confidence.

The payoff

By March 25, 2026, the catalyst delivered. HLT climbed to $303.16, representing a +3.62% gain in just 5 days and nearly hitting our $305.00 bull target. The rally was fueled by positive MGM integration metrics, an exclusive global partnership with YOTEL, the launch of the Hilton AI Planner, and new management contracts that solidified the company's growth trajectory.

HLT

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SJM: Earnings Beat and Activist Agreement Spark Rally | +4.45% in 8 Days

THE J. M. SMUCKER COMPANY$106.60 on Feb 25→$111.34 on Mar 5, 2026

The opportunity

Heading into the Q3 print, SJM sat at a significant discount compared to its intrinsic value, with the market skeptical of the Hostess acquisition integration. We flagged the name as a potential recovery play, betting that synergy realization and coffee pricing power would outweigh volume concerns and a bearish sentiment overhang.

The forecast

The bull case targeted 112.00, predicated on a normalized EPS beat and a confirmed deleveraging timeline from the Hostess deal. Conversely, the bear floor sat lower if integration costs or volume softness forced a major guidance cut, potentially stalling the stock's recovery toward the analyst consensus of 113.33.

The payoff

SJM delivered a double beat, reporting adjusted EPS of 2.38 against the 2.27 consensus and 7% sales growth. Despite a manufacturing facility fire that lowered sales forecasts, the stock climbed to 111.34 by March 5, 2026. Investors cheered the maintained EPS guidance and a constructive agreement with Elliott Management to appoint two new directors, resulting in a 4.45% realized return from the 106.60 entry.

SJM

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RELY: Remitly Surges on Massive Earnings Beat | +24.62% in 6 Days

REMITLY GLOBAL, INC.$13.08 on Feb 17→$16.30 on Feb 23, 2026

The opportunity

On February 17, 2026, we flagged RELY at a snapshot price of $13.08 ahead of its Q4 2025 earnings report. While the market sought confirmation of consistent GAAP profitability and a 20%+ revenue growth forecast to justify its valuation, strong customer adoption and volume growth in key corridors like India and Mexico set the stage for a potential earnings beat.

The forecast

The forecast established a bull target of $15.50, driven by the potential for Remitly to prove its operational scale. A bear floor was not shown in data, but we warned that a cautious outlook or any deceleration in revenue growth, combined with continued insider selling, would trigger a swift valuation reset.

The payoff

By the outcome date on February 23, 2026, RELY surged to $16.30, delivering a +24.62% return from our snapshot entry in just 6 days and outperforming the bull target of $15.50 by 5.16%. This massive move was triggered by a blockbuster earnings beat of $0.19 per share against a $0.02 estimate, robust 2026 guidance for double-digit revenue growth, and the appointment of new CEO Sebastian J. Gunningham, which reinforced long-term investor confidence.

RELY

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