AAOIApplied Optoelectronics, Inc.
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. sells high-performance optical components and HFC networking products used in data centers, CATV, and 5G infrastructure. The next catalyst is Nov 5, 2026 — Q3 2026 Earnings Release, which will test the company’s ability to sustain margins and manage customer concentration amid cyclical capex lulls.
- Revenue surged 82.8% YoY to $564.65M, but net income remained negative at -$64.10M, with a net margin of -11.4%.
- Free cash flow (TTM) is -$664.97M, and debt-to-equity is 0.09x.
- Shareholders’ equity stands at $733.92M, with diluted EPS of -0.28.
The Read
AAOI’s stock surged about 64% on strong FY2026 guidance and robust optical component demand despite in-line Q4 EPS, but later showed minimal net change as margin losses in Q1 were offset by a DOCSIS 4.
The schedule
- Thu5Nov
- Tue12Jan
- Tue9Feb
- Thu6May
- Thu5Aug
Past
- Tue22Sep
Actual outcome: Bull · $130.14 at outcome
Stock rose 20.8% from event to outcome date, aligning with the bull trajectory.
- Thu6Aug
Actual outcome: Bull · $130.08 at outcome
AAOI beat earnings estimates with a revenue surge of 86.4% YoY, driven by strong demand in data centers, CATV, and 800G growth. The stock rallied 9.2% post-earnings due to positive forward guidance on capacity expansion and AI-driven demand, despite a slight EPS miss, as investors focused on growth potential and reduced supply constraints.
Q2 results and forward capacity update for 800G/1.6T datacenter transceivers.
- Thu7May
Actual outcome: Mixed · $158.41 at outcome
Applied Optoelectronics reported a mixed Q1, posting a wider-than-expected loss due to higher costs despite a 51% year-over-year jump in revenue. While the stock initially dipped on the margin pressures, it recovered following a new DOCSIS 4.0 partnership with Mediacom and management's forecast of a sharp second-half ramp in 800G data center optics. These competing catalysts ultimately resulted in a flat 0.5% price movement by the outcome date.
- Thu26Feb
Actual outcome: Bull · $84.23 at outcome
AAOI reported Q4 EPS that was exactly in-line with consensus estimates at -$0.0288. The stock surged 56.9% and shattered the bull target, driven by exceptionally strong FY2026 guidance and a robust forward demand outlook for its optical components. The market aggressively bought the stock as the forward guidance signaled significant growth acceleration, overshadowing the current quarter's in-line earnings.