AAONAAON, Inc.
AAON, INC. (AAON) is a provider of energy-efficient HVAC systems and thermal infrastructure solutions, primarily serving data centers and industrial clients. The next catalyst is Sep 22, 2026 — AAON (AAON) Stock Faces Marg. This event will test the company’s ability to sustain recent revenue growth and maintain margin discipline amid rising input costs and supply chain pressures.
- Revenue grew 20.1% YoY to $1.82B, with net income of $142.74M and diluted EPS of $0.68.
- Free cash flow (TTM) was $39.14M, with a net margin of 7.8% and debt-to-equity of 0.00x.
- Shareholders’ equity stands at $894.99M, reflecting strong balance sheet resilience.
The Read
AAON's interim updates have historically triggered median absolute stock moves of about 27%, with a notable 15.
The schedule
- Mon9Nov
The Q3 earnings release will test the company's ability to meet or exceed expectations in a challenging macro environment. The outcome will be critical for assessing the company's product mix, cash flow generation, and operational efficiency.
- Tue9Feb
The Q4 earnings release will provide a clearer picture of the company's year-end performance, particularly in light of the recent macroeconomic shifts and the impact of the Memphis plant and ERP ramp.
- Thu6May
The Q1 2027 earnings release will test the company's ability to sustain momentum from the previous quarter and adapt to ongoing macroeconomic headwinds.
- Mon9Aug
The Q2 2027 earnings release will provide a final assessment of the company's performance in the current cycle, with a focus on its ability to navigate macroeconomic uncertainty and maintain profitability.
Past
- Tue22Sep
Actual outcome: Bear · $85.12 at outcome
Stock rose 7.3% from event to outcome date, aligning with the bear trajectory.
This event tests the company's ability to sustain recent gains amid macroeconomic uncertainty and sector-specific volatility. The outcome will reflect investor sentiment on the company's operational performance and strategic execution.
- Mon10Aug
Actual outcome: Mixed · $87.80 at outcome
AAON reported strong Q2 results, beating earnings estimates and showing significant revenue growth. However, the stock fell due to a lower-than-expected margin guidance and mixed market sentiment, leading to a bearish price reaction.
AAON's Q2 2026 earnings report arrives with the stock deeply oversold, testing the resilience of its AI data center thermal demand backlog.
- Tue23Jun
Actual outcome: Bear · $125.71 at outcome
While surrounding news highlighted AAON's strong positioning as an AI data center thermal infrastructure supplier and raised 2026 revenue growth guidance to 40%-45%, the company did not release specific updates regarding the Memphis facility or ERP implementation costs. Without new details on these margin-pressuring factors to drive momentum, the stock experienced a muted 2.9% decline, resulting in a mixed price reaction.
Interim update on the Memphis facility ramp-up and ongoing ERP implementation costs, which previously pressured margins.
- Thu7May
Actual outcome: Bull · $135.37 at outcome
AAON delivered a blowout Q1 2026 earnings report, featuring a 54.3% surge in revenue to a record $496.9 million and a backlog that doubled year-over-year to $2.13 billion. The stock skyrocketed to all-time highs, easily surpassing the bull target, as surging data center demand and management's raised full-year guidance of 40-45% revenue growth fueled massive investor optimism.
Q1 2026 earnings will be the first full look at AAON’s post-ERP and Memphis ramp after a weak Q4 print. With the stock at $93.04 and trading on rich multiples, investors will focus on whether gross margins begin to recover and if management tightens 2026 guidance. A clean quarter with improving conversion and controlled capex could support a move toward $98.50, while another margin miss or cautious commentary on 2026–2027 profitability could trigger a reset toward $98.50.
- Mon2Mar
Actual outcome: Bear · $88.33 at outcome
AAON reported Q4 2025 earnings with EPS of $0.39, missing consensus estimates of $0.45 despite strong top-line sales growth. The stock fell 15.7% as management warned that operational issues, underutilization at a new Memphis plant, and ERP system implementations pressured margins late in the year. These margin headwinds, which are expected to persist into 2027, drove the bearish reaction amid concerns over the company's expensive valuation.
