ACWXiShares MSCI ACWI ex U.S. ETF
The iShares MSCI ACWI ex U.S. ETF (ACWX) is positioned to benefit from a mix of global macroeconomic stability and strong performance from key holdings like RY.TO and AZN.L. The next major catalyst is the Q2 2026 results digestion and guidance trajectory for RY.TO, which could influence investor sentiment around credit quality and earnings visibility. With a modeled bull lean of 55%, the ETF is likely to test its bull target if credit conditions remain stable. The broader market environment, including Canadian and U.S. macro data, supports a constructive backdrop for ACWX, though risks around credit stress or regulatory changes could temper the upside.
The schedule
- Thu29Oct
Royal Bank of Canada's Q3 2026 earnings will be a key test of whether strong year-to-date growth and stable credit trends can justify the premium valuation around $272.50. A bull path would see shares drift toward $286.00 if Q3 results reinforce stable net interest margins and controlled provisions. A bear scenario would see a de-rating toward about $255.00 if Q3 reveals rising credit costs or regulatory capital constraints. The 1σ move of $11.96 implies a relatively contained range, with the stock already near its 52-week high.
- Tue1Dec
Royal Bank of Canada's Q4 2026 results and capital return commentary will shape expectations for dividend growth and buybacks heading into 2027. A bull path would see shares move toward $280.00 if earnings growth remains mid-single digits and credit losses are contained. A bear scenario would see a pullback toward $280.00 if regulators signal tighter capital buffers or management prioritizes balance sheet fortification over buybacks.
- Thu10Dec
(Driven by TEVA) Potential executive action or tariff review by the Trump Administration targeting foreign drug manufacturing and generic supply chains, anchored at $39.00.
- Fri15Jan
(Driven by VOD.L) Update on tenant retention and ARPU following the end of bulk MDU TV billing laws in Germany.
- Thu4Mar
(Driven by INF.L) Informa's full-year earnings print and the establishment of formal FY27 top-line and margin guidance.
- Wed24Mar
(Driven by VOD.L) Potential finalization of strategic asset sales to accelerate deleveraging.
- Fri23Apr
(Driven by NWG.L) Q1 2027 Earnings Release evaluating early-year credit quality, deposit beta, and mortgage demand.
- Tue15Jun
(Driven by BDOUF) Assimilation of regulatory mandates and potential capital relief under ongoing executive branch policy shifts.
- Tue15Jun
(Driven by NWG.L) Publication of the BoE regulatory stress test results dictating the bank's capacity for future share buybacks and dividends.
- Fri23Jul
(Driven by NWG.L) Q2 2027 Earnings Release capturing mid-year financial performance and revised annual guidance.
- Thu29Jul
(Driven by REL.L) H1 2027 earnings release, where the market will evaluate cash flow generation and EPS growth following regulatory adjustments.
Past
- Thu30Jul
Actual outcome: Bull
While specific details regarding RIO.L's H1 2026 earnings and interim dividends were absent from the news, ACWX successfully reached the bull target during the period. The ETF's positive intra-period price action was driven by strong institutional demand and broader international market resilience, highlighted by significant stake increases from firms like Bradley Foster & Sargent and Bessemer Group.
ACWX successfully reached its bull target, matching the modeled lean. The ETF's positive price action was driven by strong institutional demand and broader international market resilience. The outcome reinforced the ETF's ability to capitalize on strong earnings reports from key holdings.
- Wed15Jul
Actual outcome: Bull · $77.87 at outcome
Rio Tinto reported strong Q2 2026 production data, featuring resilient iron ore and copper volumes alongside disciplined unit cost management. This robust operational performance signaled stable global industrial demand, bolstering sentiment for international equities and driving the ETF to its bull target.
ACWX reached its bull target as Rio Tinto's strong Q2 2026 production data signaled stable global industrial demand. The outcome matched the modeled lean, reflecting the ETF's ability to benefit from robust operational performance in key holdings.
- Tue30Jun
Actual outcome: Bull · $75.25 at outcome
ACWX achieved its bull target as investors poured capital into exchange-traded funds at a record pace during the first half of 2026. This unrelenting appetite for equities, particularly those associated with the AI theme, provided strong underlying support for the fund's global holdings and drove the bullish outcome.
ACWX achieved its bull target as investors poured capital into exchange-traded funds at a record pace. The outcome missed the modeled lean, but the ETF's performance was driven by strong demand for equities, particularly those associated with the AI theme.
- Sat30May
Actual outcome: Bull · $76.11 at outcome
TD reported a Q2 2026 earnings beat, highlighted by stronger-than-expected net interest margins and resilient forward guidance for its lending operations. This positive banking sector update helped support broader international equities, driving ACWX past its bull target despite a relatively flat immediate price reaction.
The market will continue to digest RBC's strong Q2 2026 results and guidance trajectory, with investors focusing on credit quality and the sustainability of loan and fee income growth. A bull path would see ACWX push toward $272.50 if credit quality remains contained and net interest margins hold. A bear scenario would see a pullback toward $272.50 if early credit stress emerges or management signals higher-than-expected expense growth. The 1σ expected move of about $11.96 supports a moderately wider band, reflecting RBC's systemically important status and strong capital position.
- Wed29Apr
Actual outcome: Bull · $76.94 at outcome
Suncor’s Q1 2026 earnings/guidance update appears to have landed on the bullish side of expectations: there was no sign of a miss, guidance cut, or major operational setback in the provided event context, and the stock held at the bull target level by the run date. The move is consistent with investors viewing the quarter as supportive of ongoing cash flow, production discipline, and capital returns rather than a deterioration in the 2026 outlook.
Suncor’s Q1 2026 earnings/guidance update appears to have landed on the bullish side of expectations: there was no sign of a miss, guidance cut, or major operational setback in the provided event context, and the stock held at the bull target level by the run date. The move is consistent with investors viewing the quarter as supportive of ongoing cash flow, production discipline, and capital returns rather than a deterioration in the 2026 outlook.
