ADAMGAdamas Trust, Inc. - 9.125% Senior Notes Due 2030
The Read
2% gain in June amid Fed rate uncertainty, all within prior scenario bands.
The schedule
- Sun7Feb
Release of Q3 2026 earnings and crucial 2027 forward guidance regarding portfolio yield, funding costs, and dividend sustainability.
- Sun9May
- Mon10May
Past
- Sun20Sep
Actual outcome: Mixed · $24.94 at outcome
Price at outcome date was between bear floor ($21.00) and bull target ($26.40).
An interim operational update detailing non-performing loans (NPLs) and underlying asset quality in Adamas Trust's mortgage portfolio.
- Tue1Sep
Actual outcome: Mixed · $24.59 at outcome
Price at outcome date was between bear floor ($24.00) and bull target ($26.20).
Expected regulatory updates from the Trump administration regarding GSE reform and secondary mortgage market liquidity.
- Sun9Aug
Actual outcome: Mixed · $24.59 at outcome
ADAMG reported Q2 2026 EPS of $0.41, perfectly matching consensus estimates. With earnings offering no surprises and the funding strategy update lacking a clear directional catalyst, the stock traded completely flat between the event and outcome dates.
- Wed15Jul
Actual outcome: Bull · $24.99 at outcome
Adamas Trust received a favorable outcome during its credit rating review, as agencies reaffirmed the rating on its 9.125% senior notes. The affirmation highlighted stable cash flow coverage and manageable leverage, which alleviated downgrade concerns and allowed the stock to hold its value near the bull target.
A potential scheduled or ad-hoc credit rating review evaluating Adamas Trust's leverage and cash flow coverage for its 9.125% senior notes.
- Wed17Jun
Actual outcome: Bull · $25.30 at outcome
ADAMG maintained its appeal as a defensive income play, highlighting its +9% yield amidst interest rate uncertainty surrounding the June FOMC meeting. The focus on collecting a rich, stable income stream regardless of the Fed's rate path reassured investors about the company's funding costs and repo market dynamics, driving the stock to achieve its bull target.
President Trump's administration policies alongside the June FOMC meeting will dictate ADAMG's near-term funding costs and repo market dynamics.
- Sun10May
Actual outcome: Bull · $25.32 at outcome
Adamas Trust reported Q1 2026 EPS of $0.41, exactly in line with consensus estimates. The lack of earnings surprises and stable updates regarding the company's interest coverage and debt management met market expectations, resulting in a flat price reaction as the notes continued to support their 9.125% coupon without providing a new directional catalyst.
Q1 2026 results and the associated interest coverage discussion will be the first look at how Adamas Trust, Inc. - 9.125% Senior Notes Due 2030 is managing its rapidly expanding mortgage book and $11.0B+ debt stack after a year of volatile profitability. With the notes trading at $24.82 near the 52-week high, the market is implicitly expecting stable or improving credit metrics and sustainable cash generation to support the 9.125% coupon.
