ADPTAdaptive Biotechnologies Corporation
Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation (ADPT) develops and commercializes next-generation sequencing technologies for precision medicine, including its flagship Minimal Residual Disease (MRD) diagnostic platform. The company is set to announce its next major catalyst on November 9, 2026 — Catalyst, which is expected to provide critical insights into its ongoing clinical and strategic initiatives. This event is supported by recent news that highlights the company's progress in separating its MRD and immune medicine businesses, a move that has already sparked investor interest .
- A public fact about that setup: Adaptive Biotechnologies recently announced plans to separate its MRD diagnostics business from its immune medicine platform, a strategic move aimed at unlocking value and focusing on its core strengths .
- Scouter has modeled bull and bear paths into the next catalyst: The company’s upcoming event is expected to influence its stock price significantly, with a modeled bull target of $26.16 and a bear fallback of $23.00.
- Past catalysts on this name are scored in The Read: The last major catalyst, the Q2 2026 earnings release, resulted in a bear outcome, with the stock dropping 4% and breaking below the bear floor.
The schedule
- Mon9Nov
The Q3 2026 earnings release is a critical event that will provide insight into the company's financial performance and future outlook. This report will include details on revenue, expenses, and guidance for the upcoming quarters, along with potential updates on clinical trials and other key developments. The event is expected to have a significant impact on investor sentiment and stock price movement, making it a key date for market participants to monitor closely.
- Tue9Feb
- Tue4May
- Tue3Aug
Past
- Mon15Jun
Actual outcome: Bull · $29.86 at outcome
Adaptive Biotechnologies announced plans to spin off its immune medicine platform, allowing it to focus on its core diagnostic testing business. This move signals strategic realignment and potential for separate valuation, driving investor optimism. The separation enables exploration of strategic options for the drug-discovery unit, enhancing shareholder value. [Market retrospective · Long-Term (31–75 days)] Updated observation 2026-09-24: +77.0% from 2026-06-08 (~2.3σ). Target date 2026-06-18 reached; move through 2026-09-24 observed. [Market retrospective · Long-Term (31–75 days)] Updated observation 2026-09-25: +69.4% from 2026-06-09 (~2.1σ). Target date 2026-06-18 reached; move through 2026-09-25 observed. [Market retrospective · Long-Term (31–75 days)] Updated observation 2026-09-28: +67.5% from 2026-06-10 (~2.1σ). Target date 2026-06-18 reached; move through 2026-09-28 observed. [Market retrospective · Long-Term (31–75 days)] Updated observation 2026-10-05: +77.7% from 2026-06-17 (~2.3σ). Target date 2026-06-18 reached; move through 2026-10-05 observed.
Scored outcome date: 2026-06-18 Actual outcome: bull Price at outcome: $20.96 Starting price at analysis: n/a Predicted bull target: n/a Predicted bear fallback: n/a Predicted bull probability: n/a Prediction vs lean: n/a What happened: Adaptive Biotechnologies announced a strategic plan to separate its profitable Minimal Residual Disease (MRD) diagnostics business from its Immune Medicine platform. This corporate restructuring is intended to unlock value by allowing each business to focus on its respective strengths, and was accompanied by a $300 million convertible senior notes offering to optimize the capital structure. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Missed anticipation: +13.1% from 2026-06-03 to 2026-06-18 (~3.1σ vs typical 1d vol). Target date 2026-06-18 reached; move through 2026-06-18 observed. Confidence 95%. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-06-23: +13.1% from 2026-06-03 (~3.1σ). Target date 2026-06-18 reached; move through 2026-06-23 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-06-24: +13.1% from 2026-06-03 (~3.1σ). Target date 2026-06-18 reached; move through 2026-06-24 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-06-25: +13.1% from 2026-06-03 (~3.1σ). Target date 2026-06-18 reached; move through 2026-06-25 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-06-26: +13.1% from 2026-06-03 (~3.1σ). Target date 2026-06-18 reached; move through 2026-06-26 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-06-29: +13.1% from 2026-06-03 (~3.1σ). Target date 2026-06-18 reached; move through 2026-06-29 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-06-30: +13.1% from 2026-06-03 (~3.1σ). Target date 2026-06-18 reached; move through 2026-06-30 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-07-01: +13.1% from 2026-06-03 (~3.1σ). Target date 2026-06-18 reached; move through 2026-07-01 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-07-02: +13.1% from 2026-06-03 (~3.1σ). Target date 2026-06-18 reached; move through 2026-07-02 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-07-03: +13.1% from 2026-06-03 (~3.1σ). Target date 2026-06-18 reached; move through 2026-07-03 observed.
- Tue19May
Actual outcome: Bear · $13.88 at outcome
Adaptive Biotechnologies reported Q2 2026 earnings that exactly met analyst expectations with an EPS of -$0.13. However, the stock declined following news that Harvest Investment Services dumped 356,000 shares of the company. Despite the company's upcoming participation in investor conferences, this significant institutional sell-off overshadowed the in-line earnings and drove negative market sentiment.
Setup at the time: Historical catalyst event (from outcomes) Modeled bull target (roadmap): $19.50 Modeled bear fallback (roadmap): $16.20 Modeled bull probability (roadmap): 45% Scored outcome date: 2026-05-22 Actual outcome: bear Price at outcome: $13.88 Starting price at analysis: n/a Predicted bull target: $19.50 Predicted bear fallback: $16.20 Predicted bull probability: 45% Prediction vs lean: lean matched Price error: -14.3% What happened: Adaptive Biotechnologies reported Q2 2026 earnings that exactly met analyst expectations with an EPS of -$0.13. However, the stock declined following news that Harvest Investment Services dumped 356,000 shares of the company. Despite the company's upcoming participation in investor conferences, this significant institutional sell-off overshadowed the in-line earnings and drove negative market sentiment.
- Tue5May
Actual outcome: Bear · $13.18 at outcome
Adaptive Biotechnologies reported a Q1 loss of $0.13 per share, beating consensus estimates, alongside a revenue beat driven by accelerating MRD adoption. Despite these positive headline results, the stock fell 4.6% and broke below the bear floor, suggesting the market may have been spooked by a recent insider sale by the COO or found the updated outlook insufficient to sustain upward momentum.
Setup at the time: Historical catalyst event (from outcomes) Modeled bull target (roadmap): $15.40 Modeled bear fallback (roadmap): $13.50 Modeled bull probability (roadmap): 45% Scored outcome date: 2026-05-12 Actual outcome: bear Price at outcome: $13.18 Starting price at analysis: n/a Predicted bull target: $15.40 Predicted bear fallback: $13.50 Predicted bull probability: 45% Prediction vs lean: lean matched Price error: -2.4% What happened: Adaptive Biotechnologies reported a Q1 loss of $0.13 per share, beating consensus estimates, alongside a revenue beat driven by accelerating MRD adoption. Despite these positive headline results, the stock fell 4.6% and broke below the bear floor, suggesting the market may have been spooked by a recent insider sale by the COO or found the updated outlook insufficient to sustain upward momentum.
- Thu26Feb
Actual outcome: Bear · $15.79 at outcome
Adaptive Biotechnologies reported a Q4 2025 EPS beat but critically missed consensus revenue estimates, signaling weaker growth momentum than anticipated. The market focused on the revenue shortfall, which undermined expectations for continued clonoSEQ adoption and the path to sustained profitability. This negative fundamental reaction drove the stock price below the $16.50 bear floor.
Setup at the time: Historical catalyst event (from outcomes) Modeled bull target (roadmap): $20.50 Modeled bear fallback (roadmap): $16.50 Modeled bull probability (roadmap): 55% Scored outcome date: 2026-03-05 Actual outcome: bear Price at outcome: $15.79 Starting price at analysis: n/a Predicted bull target: $20.50 Predicted bear fallback: $16.50 Predicted bull probability: 55% Prediction vs lean: lean missed Price error: -4.3% What happened: Adaptive Biotechnologies reported a Q4 2025 EPS beat but critically missed consensus revenue estimates, signaling weaker growth momentum than anticipated. The market focused on the revenue shortfall, which undermined expectations for continued clonoSEQ adoption and the path to sustained profitability. This negative fundamental reaction drove the stock price below the $16.50 bear floor.
