ADUSAddus HomeCare Corp
This is the year Addus HomeCare has to prove it’s more than a niche player in the medical care facilities space. The next catalyst — a state minimum wage policy change on 2026-10-15 — is the first real test, with a bull target of $118.56 and a bear fallback of $112.54, leaning slightly bearish. If it survives this, the company will have a chance to show it can handle the next big test: its Q3 2026 earnings release on 2026-11-03, which has a higher bull probability and a more aggressive bull target. The path ahead is a sequence of events that will either solidify its position or expose its vulnerabilities — and the market is watching closely.
The Read
7% on strong revenue growth beats and favorable CMS reimbursement adjustments but faced downward pressure when EPS met but did not exceed estimates or when revenue growth fell short of double-digit targets amid rising short interest.
The schedule
No upcoming catalysts on the current packet.
Past
- Tue4Aug
Actual outcome: Bull · $119.68 at outcome
ADUS met earnings estimates of $1.36 per share but delivered strong revenue growth of 8% and adjusted EPS growth of 16.1%, driven by expansion in personal care and hospice services, improved cash generation, and ongoing acquisition activity. The rally reflected confidence in the company's growth trajectory and operational momentum, despite the EPS meeting expectations.
Q2 2026 earnings release. Assessing if 7.7% top-line growth can accelerate to defend a $105.50 target or if a 'sell the news' reversion to $96.00 materializes.
- Wed15Jul
Actual outcome: Bull · $111.50 at outcome
Concerns over sector-wide antitrust reviews stifling Addus's growth-by-acquisition engine eased as regulatory scrutiny proved less restrictive than feared. This favorable development confirmed that the company's historical M&A strategy remains viable, driving the stock past the $109 bull target.
Broader sector antitrust reviews could slow Addus's historical growth-by-acquisition engine. Evaluating risk to the $101.50 floor vs a $109.00 clearance from the $105.17 spot.
- Tue5May
Actual outcome: Mixed · $97.79 at outcome
Addus HomeCare reported Q1 2026 results with net service revenues increasing 7.7% to $363.6 million and GAAP EPS of $1.36, which met consensus estimates. Although adjusted EPS of $1.62 beat expectations, the stock saw a muted reaction, falling just 0.7% by the outcome date. This indicates a mixed market response as the solid top-line growth and earnings performance were largely anticipated and priced in.
Addus reports Q1 2026 results and updates FY2026 guidance, testing whether its double-digit growth and margin trajectory can offset reimbursement and labor cost concerns.
- Fri1May
Actual outcome: Bull · $99.57 at outcome
The CMS proposed 2027 payment rule delivered favorable reimbursement rate adjustments for Medicaid-funded home and community-based services, supporting Addus's margin outlook. With the stock price holding at $99.56, it has successfully cleared the bull target of $98.00, reflecting investor confidence in the stability of the regulatory environment and the company's value proposition relative to peers.
CMS releases its proposed 2027 payment rule for Medicaid and home- and community-based services, a key swing factor for Addus reimbursement rates and margins.
- Tue24Feb
Actual outcome: Mixed · $103.36 at outcome
Addus HomeCare reported Q4 2025 EPS of $1.61, exactly matching analyst estimates. The in-line earnings results failed to provide a strong directional catalyst, leading to a muted 1.7% decline in the stock price. Despite a significant increase in short interest leading up to the report, the lack of major surprises left shares trading relatively flat and well within the expected range.
Report on Q4 2025 performance. Focus on sustained double-digit revenue growth and the impact of rising caregiver wages on gross margins. A key catalyst is the 2026 guidance, particularly around EPS and M&A contribution.
