AGOAssured Guaranty Ltd.
Assured Guaranty Ltd. sells insurance and reinsurance products, primarily to municipal clients, offering guarantees against credit risk. The next catalyst is Nov 6, 2026 — Q3 2026 Earnings Release, which will test the company’s ability to deliver earnings that meet or exceed expectations amid a challenging macro environment. The event will also provide insight into its capital deployment and underwriting performance.
- Revenue: $0 (Q3 2026)
- Net income: $335.00M (Q1 2024)
- Free cash flow (TTM): $805.00M
The Read
Assured Guaranty’s stock remained flat after Q1 2026 earnings met but did not exceed estimates amid EPS decline, and also showed little reaction to infrastructure policy rollout due to lack of immediate deal flow catalysts.
The schedule
- Fri6Nov
- Fri15Jan
- Fri5Feb
- Fri7May
- Fri6Aug
Past
- Wed16Sep
Actual outcome: Bear · $67.73 at outcome
Stock fell 5.0% from event to outcome date, aligning with the bear trajectory.
- Fri7Aug
Actual outcome: Bear · $76.79 at outcome
Assured Guaranty reported mixed Q2 2026 results, posting earnings of $1.23 per share that missed the Zacks consensus estimate of $1.66, despite management highlighting higher adjusted operating income and growth in its U.S. public finance platform. The earnings shortfall overshadowed positive commentary and a steady quarterly dividend, driving the stock down through the $75.50 bear floor.
- Sat20Jun
Actual outcome: Bull · $80.16 at outcome
The anticipated rollout of new municipal financing mandates under the infrastructure agenda yielded few new details, resulting in a muted market reaction. While the policy implementation remained on track, the lack of immediate, actionable catalysts for municipal bond insurance volume left the stock trading flat as investors awaited clearer signs of increased deal flow.
- Fri8May
Actual outcome: Bear · $76.13 at outcome
Assured Guaranty reported Q1 2026 EPS that met consensus estimates at $2.43, though this represented a year-over-year decline from $3.18 per share. While management highlighted a strong start to the year and maintained its $0.38 quarterly dividend, the lack of a definitive upside surprise led to a muted market reception, leaving the stock flat.
