AIRGAirgain, Inc.
The schedule
- Tue20Oct
Evaluation of margin vulnerability to updated import duties and component supply chain restrictions.
- Wed3Feb
Forward guidance reset for the upcoming fiscal year, testing enterprise demand elasticity for IoT hardware.
- Wed5May
- Wed5May
Full-year results and definitive forward expectations for profitability.
- Wed4Aug
Past
- Wed30Sep
Actual outcome: Bear · $4.21 at outcome
AIRG reported earnings below expectations with lower-than-anticipated revenue guidance, triggering a sharp sell-off. The move reflects concerns about near-term performance and potential margin pressure in the ultra-short term. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Missed anticipation: -16.5% from 2026-09-30 to 2026-10-01 (~5.4σ vs typical 1d vol). Target evaluation date 2026-10-05 (not yet reached as of 2026-10-01). Confidence 95%.
AIRG reported earnings below expectations with lower-than-anticipated revenue guidance, triggering a sharp sell-off. The move reflects concerns about near-term performance and potential margin pressure in the ultra-short term. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Missed anticipation: -16.5% from 2026-09-30 to 2026-10-01 (~5.4σ vs typical 1d vol). Target evaluation date 2026-10-05 (not yet reached as of 2026-10-01). Confidence 95%.
- Thu24Sep
Assessment of dilution risk as the company manages operating cash burn against its remaining capital reserves.
- Wed5Aug
Actual outcome: Bear · $5.41 at outcome
Airgain reported Q2 revenue of $13.7M, up 19% sequentially, and returned to positive adjusted EBITDA, beating EPS estimates of -$0.15 exactly. However, the stock fell below the bear floor of $5.80, likely due to broader market weakness and unmet expectations for stronger guidance, despite the positive revenue growth and EBITDA recovery.
Market evaluation of Q2 performance, specifically looking for top-line revenue conversion from recent autonomous platform design wins.
- Wed6May
Actual outcome: Bear · $6.79 at outcome
Price reached or fell below bear floor ($5.90) at outcome date.
Airgain reports Q1 2026 results. The market will look for a reversal of the recent -19.6% YoY revenue contraction. Favorable margin expansion sets a target of $8.20, while ongoing top-line erosion drops shares to a $5.90 fallback.
