AISPAirship AI Holdings, Inc.
The Read
Airship AI’s stock has historically fallen sharply after revenue misses and failure to stabilize declines despite EPS beats, showed muted gains or declines on contract awards lacking scale, briefly rallied on strong Q1 revenue and margin growth but then dropped on wider losses and secondary offering risks.
The schedule
- Fri13Nov
Earnings report with potential guidance on AI platform performance and federal contract progress.
- Wed20Jan
Potential impact on federal contracts and funding for AI initiatives.
- Sun14Feb
Earnings report with potential guidance on AI platform performance and federal contract progress.
- Fri14May
Earnings report with potential guidance on AI platform performance and federal contract progress.
- Thu5Aug
Earnings report with potential guidance on AI platform performance and federal contract progress.
Past
- Wed30Sep
Actual outcome: Bull · $2.48 at outcome
AISP delivered a positive earnings surprise, exceeding expectations with higher-than-forecast revenue and EPS. The company also provided optimistic guidance for the upcoming quarters, signaling strong growth momentum and operational efficiency. This catalyst significantly boosted investor sentiment and drove the stock higher. [Market retrospective · Short-Term (6–10 days)] Updated observation 2026-10-12: +31.2% from 2026-09-25 (~2.2σ). Target date 2026-10-05 reached; move through 2026-10-12 observed.
AISP delivered a positive earnings surprise, exceeding expectations with higher-than-forecast revenue and EPS. The company also provided optimistic guidance for the upcoming quarters, signaling strong growth momentum and operational efficiency. This catalyst significantly boosted investor sentiment and drove the stock higher. [Market retrospective · Short-Term (6–10 days)] Updated observation 2026-10-12: +31.2% from 2026-09-25 (~2.2σ). Target date 2026-10-05 reached; move through 2026-10-12 observed.
- Thu6Aug
Actual outcome: Bear · $2.03 at outcome
Airship AI Holdings, Inc. (AISP) reported a quarterly loss of $0.07 per share, matching the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.07, but beat expectations by 0.0%. The company also reported a 92% increase in net revenue to $4.12 million and a 102% increase in gross profit to $3.09 million, with a gross margin of 75%. The stock reacted positively due to the strong revenue and profit growth, indicating improved operational performance and potential for future scalability.
Airship AI reports Q2 2026 results, focusing on margin stability and liquidity burn following recent strategic financing risks.
- Mon18May
Actual outcome: Bear · $2.30 at outcome
Price reached or fell below bear floor ($2.10) at outcome date.
Market evaluation of potential equity dilution given AISP's negative equity position, heavily factoring in the rapid 1-day volume normalization window.
- Fri8May
Actual outcome: Mixed · $2.52 at outcome
Airship AI reported Q1 2026 results featuring a 15% year-over-year increase in net revenues to $6.3 million and a significant gross margin expansion to 50%. Despite beating revenue estimates and showing strong top-line growth, the company posted an in-line net loss, which failed to provide the definitive backlog visibility needed to drive a breakout. Consequently, the market reaction was muted, with shares trading relatively flat as investors weighed the revenue growth against continued bottom-line losses.
Q1 2026 earnings will need to show that the late-2025 revenue recovery is sustainable and that the federal and defense pipeline is converting into a durable backlog; at $2.21 the stock trades below its 50-day and 200-day averages, so any further revenue miss or soft orders could pull shares toward $2.60, while a clean beat with clearer multi-quarter backlog visibility could support a move toward $2.60.
- Fri6Mar
Actual outcome: Bear · $2.49 at outcome
The announced federal contract failed to provide the multi-year revenue visibility or significant scale required to re-accelerate growth following the Q4 trough. Investors reacted with indifference as the award size did not meet the high expectations of the bull case, leaving the stock stagnant near the bear floor.
The core investment thesis is predicated on landing large, sticky government/defense contracts. A major, multi-year win is needed to re-accelerate revenue post-Q4 trough.
- Tue17Feb
Actual outcome: Bull · $2.91 at outcome
AISP reported Q4 2025 EPS of $0.70, exactly meeting consensus estimates. The in-line earnings performance and the release of FY 2026 guidance reassured investors about the company's near-term trajectory, sparking a 19.8% rally in the week following the announcement.
Release of Q4 2025 results and critical FY 2026 financial guidance. Focus will be on stabilizing the -59% YoY revenue decline and addressing the negative equity position.
