ALSMYAlstom S.A.
The schedule
- Tue17Nov
Alstom reports H1 earnings with management already guiding to a massive free cash flow consumption. Starting from $1.95, this adverse execution reality makes the $1.55 fallback our base case. Containing the cash burn and stabilizing margins would be required to reach the $2.15 target.
- Tue19Jan
Alstom reports Q3 commercial momentum. Starting from the depressed $1.55 anchor, Q3 orders must show dramatic acceleration to secure the >1.0x annual book-to-bill target. Failure to book significant deals would threaten backlog depletion, projecting a drop to the $1.40 fallback.
- Wed24Feb
The highly anticipated Capital Markets Day provides the CEO a platform to detail structural cost-outs. From $1.85, a credible and non-dilutive roadmap to higher margins validates the $2.25 target. Vague execution details would penalize the stock to the $1.50 fallback.
- Wed12May
FY27 Annual Results will test the promised H2 free cash flow recovery. Progressing from $2.25, a positive full-year cash generation print solidifies the turnaround, supporting the $2.50 target. A shortfall revives acute leverage concerns, driving a retreat to the $1.80 fallback.
- Tue20Jul
The Q1 FY28 update tests the durability of the margin expansion plan. Anchored at $2.50, continued momentum in high-margin signalling warrants the $2.80 target. Should macro headwinds delay summer tenders, the stock could retrace to the $2.10 fallback.
Past
- Thu24Sep
The biennial InnoTrans exhibition is a critical venue for Alstom to announce major pipeline orders, addressing the weak Q1 book-to-bill. Advancing from the $1.78 base, a robust commercial showing could push shares to the $1.95 target. A lack of meaningful deal flow would confirm sluggish capex environments, risking a drop to the $1.60 fallback.
