COFCapital One Financial Corporation
Capital One Financial Corporation (COF) is a U.S. bank that generates revenue through consumer and small business lending, credit cards, and financial services. Its next catalyst is Oct 15, 2026 — Interest Rate Sensitivity Analysis, which will test how its balance sheet performs under shifting rate environments. The event will scrutinize the bank’s exposure to interest rate volatility, particularly in its loan portfolios and net interest income.
- COF’s revenue grew 36.3% YoY to $9.30B, with a net margin of 44.2% (TTM).
- Shareholders’ equity stands at $113.62B, and debt-to-equity is 0.29x.
- Diluted EPS of $4.73 reflects strong earnings power, though recent quarters have seen mixed performance amid macro pressures.
The Read
5% move on catalysts, often settling within the prior scenario band, as seen after revenue beats, credit risk spikes, and earnings releases that balanced positive developments against profit-taking and macro headwinds.
The schedule
- Thu15Oct
The interest rate sensitivity analysis will provide insight into how the company's credit portfolios are affected by changes in interest rates. This information is crucial for investors looking to understand the company's exposure to rate fluctuations and its ability to adapt to changing market conditions. The analysis is expected to offer a clearer picture of the company's financial resilience.
- Thu5Nov
The Q3 2026 earnings release is a key event that will provide insight into the company's credit performance and how sensitive its operations are to interest rate changes. This event is expected to have a significant impact on the stock price, as investors will be looking for signs of strong performance and resilience in a fluctuating market. The outcome will be closely watched, especially given the current macroeconomic conditions and the company's exposure to high leverage.
- Sun15Nov
This event will provide an outlook on consumer credit demand and its potential impact on the company's loan portfolios. A positive outlook could signal increased lending activity and growth opportunities, which may be a catalyst for the stock. Investors will be looking for signs of strong consumer demand and the company's ability to capitalize on this trend.
- Sat5Dec
The regulatory update on credit services will provide information on changes affecting the company's lending practices and compliance requirements. While regulatory changes can introduce uncertainty, they may also indicate improved standards and stability in the industry. This event is expected to have a significant impact on the stock, as investors will be assessing the potential implications of these changes.
- Tue9Feb
- Thu6May
- Thu5Aug
Past
- Tue15Sep
This event focuses on the company's credit risk management strategies and the performance of its portfolio. It is an opportunity for the company to demonstrate its proactive approach to managing credit risk, which can be a positive signal for investors. The update is expected to provide clarity on the company's risk exposure and its ability to navigate potential challenges.
- Tue28Jul
Actual outcome: Mixed · $209.01 at outcome
Capital One reported Q2 EPS of $4.73, exactly matching Wall Street estimates, alongside a 4% sequential increase in revenue. Positive developments, including lower credit provisions and steady progress on the Discover integration, were offset by rising expenses and weaker deposits, resulting in a muted 1.6% decline in the stock price.
Capital One reported Q2 EPS of $4.73, exactly matching Wall Street estimates, alongside a 4% sequential increase in revenue. Positive developments, including lower credit provisions and steady progress on the Discover integration, were offset by rising expenses and weaker deposits, resulting in a muted 1.6% decline in the stock price.
- Thu5Mar
Actual outcome: Bear · $177.45 at outcome
Industry data confirmed a spike in credit risks, with macro headwinds such as rising oil prices and weakening employment prompting a more cautious 2026 EPS outlook of $18.75–$20.50. This fundamental deterioration, alongside significant institutional selling and insider divestment, drove the stock price below the $182.00 bear floor.
Industry data confirmed a spike in credit risks, with macro headwinds such as rising oil prices and weakening employment prompting a more cautious 2026 EPS outlook of $18.75–$20.50. This fundamental deterioration, alongside significant institutional selling and insider divestment, drove the stock price below the $182.00 bear floor.
- Thu29Jan
Actual outcome: Bear · $207.37 at outcome
Capital One reported a Q4 2025 revenue beat ($15.62B vs. $15.49B expected); however, the stock immediately weakened as the market prioritized the catalyst's focus: a necessary valuation correction. Heavy insider selling and a high P/E ratio (48x) drove profit-taking, pushing the stock down toward the $205 bear floor ($208.07 run date price), confirming the expected cooling period.
Capital One reported a Q4 2025 revenue beat ($15.62B vs. $15.49B expected); however, the stock immediately weakened as the market prioritized the catalyst's focus: a necessary valuation correction. Heavy insider selling and a high P/E ratio (48x) drove profit-taking, pushing the stock down toward the $205 bear floor ($208.07 run date price), confirming the expected cooling period.
