ESTCElastic N.v.
Elastic N.v. (ESTC) sells Security Information and Event Management (SIEM) and Extended Detection and Response (XDR) platforms, targeting enterprises and government agencies. The next catalyst is Oct 15, 2026 — Elastic - Investor Relations, where the company will present its Q4 2026 results and outline its strategic priorities. This event will test the business’s ability to sustain revenue growth and navigate public sector contract risks.
- Revenue grew 17.3% YoY to $1.77B, but net income remained negative at -$84.86M.
- Free cash flow (TTM) reached $537.77M, suggesting operational discipline.
- Debt-to-equity ratio of 0.45x indicates moderate leverage.
The Read
7% drop during the 2026 federal IT audit due to public contract concerns but an 11.
The schedule
- Thu15Oct
This event will provide clarity on the company's strategic direction and potential new product launches, which could influence investor sentiment ahead of the earnings release.
- Thu15Oct
This earnings print will test the company's ability to maintain revenue growth and manage its high leverage amid macroeconomic uncertainty. The outcome will be critical for assessing the company's path to profitability and its ability to secure new contracts in the cloud and enterprise software space.
- Thu15Oct
Government spending and procurement decisions could impact the company's enterprise software and cloud services business, especially in the public sector.
- Fri30Oct
Earnings report with guidance on Q3 performance and future outlook, focusing on cloud adoption and AI integration progress.
- Thu10Dec
This event will outline the company's strategic priorities and growth expectations for the coming year, which could influence investor sentiment and stock performance.
- Fri30Apr
This earnings release will be a key test of the company's ability to sustain growth and manage its high leverage in a challenging macroeconomic environment.
- Mon9Aug
This earnings release will be a critical test of the company's ability to maintain growth and manage its high leverage in a challenging macroeconomic environment.
Past
- Fri10Jul
Actual outcome: Bull · $62.24 at outcome
Elastic shares trended higher following strong industry validation of its platform capabilities, including achieving a 100% malware protection score in the AV-Comparatives Business Security Test and being named a Leader in the Gartner Magic Quadrant for Observability Platforms. These positive developments reinforced confidence in the company's competitive positioning, driving the stock steadily upward to eventually surpass the $63.50 bull target.
Potential announcements regarding cloud integrations and hyperscaler partnerships, testing the $63.50 upside against a $52.50 fallback.
- Thu25Jun
Actual outcome: Bull · $57.02 at outcome
Despite concerns of a valuation-driven downgrade, ESTC shares rallied 6.4% through the outcome date. The stock's upward momentum was supported by positive product developments, including the launch of new capabilities featuring native Prometheus support and agentic investigation experiences, alongside recent industry recognition of Elastic's SIEM and XDR platforms.
With ESTC trading at $64.69 versus a consensus target of $61.00 and an overbought RSI, the stock faces risk of valuation-driven downgrades or target cuts that could catalyze a reset toward intrinsic DCF levels.
- Thu28May
Actual outcome: Bull · $58.04 at outcome
Elastic reported fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 results that exceeded Wall Street expectations, with total revenue rising 16% year-over-year to $451 million and EPS of $0.61 beating estimates of $0.56. The stock surged due to strong subscription growth, accelerating customer commitments, and rising adoption of its AI-related offerings. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Missed anticipation: +12.3% from 2026-05-28 to 2026-06-01 (~3.8σ vs typical 1d vol). Target date 2026-06-01 reached; move through 2026-06-01 observed. Confidence 100%. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-06-02: +12.3% from 2026-05-28 (~3.8σ). Target date 2026-06-01 reached; move through 2026-06-02 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-06-03: +12.3% from 2026-05-28 (~3.8σ). Target date 2026-06-01 reached; move through 2026-06-03 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-06-04: +12.3% from 2026-05-28 (~3.8σ). Target date 2026-06-01 reached; move through 2026-06-04 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-06-05: +12.3% from 2026-05-28 (~3.8σ). Target date 2026-06-01 reached; move through 2026-06-05 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-06-08: +12.3% from 2026-05-28 (~3.8σ). Target date 2026-06-01 reached; move through 2026-06-08 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-06-09: +12.3% from 2026-05-28 (~3.8σ). Target date 2026-06-01 reached; move through 2026-06-09 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-06-10: +12.3% from 2026-05-28 (~3.8σ). Target date 2026-06-01 reached; move through 2026-06-10 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-06-11: +12.3% from 2026-05-28 (~3.8σ). Target date 2026-06-01 reached; move through 2026-06-11 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-06-12: +12.3% from 2026-05-28 (~3.8σ). Target date 2026-06-01 reached; move through 2026-06-12 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-06-15: +12.3% from 2026-05-28 (~3.8σ). Target date 2026-06-01 reached; move through 2026-06-15 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-06-16: +12.3% from 2026-05-28 (~3.8σ). Target date 2026-06-01 reached; move through 2026-06-16 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-06-17: +12.3% from 2026-05-28 (~3.8σ). Target date 2026-06-01 reached; move through 2026-06-17 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-06-18: +12.3% from 2026-05-28 (~3.8σ). Target date 2026-06-01 reached; move through 2026-06-18 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-06-19: +12.3% from 2026-05-28 (~3.8σ). Target date 2026-06-01 reached; move through 2026-06-19 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-06-23: +12.3% from 2026-05-28 (~3.8σ). Target date 2026-06-01 reached; move through 2026-06-23 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-06-25: +12.3% from 2026-05-28 (~3.8σ). Target date 2026-06-01 reached; move through 2026-06-25 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-06-26: +12.3% from 2026-05-28 (~3.8σ). Target date 2026-06-01 reached; move through 2026-06-26 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-06-29: +12.3% from 2026-05-28 (~3.8σ). Target date 2026-06-01 reached; move through 2026-06-29 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-06-30: +12.3% from 2026-05-28 (~3.8σ). Target date 2026-06-01 reached; move through 2026-06-30 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-07-01: +12.3% from 2026-05-28 (~3.8σ). Target date 2026-06-01 reached; move through 2026-07-01 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-07-02: +12.3% from 2026-05-28 (~3.8σ). Target date 2026-06-01 reached; move through 2026-07-02 observed.
Elastic reported fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 results that exceeded Wall Street expectations, with total revenue rising 16% year-over-year to $451 million and EPS of $0.61 beating estimates of $0.56. The stock surged due to strong subscription growth, accelerating customer commitments, and rising adoption of its AI-related offerings. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Missed anticipation: +12.3% from 2026-05-28 to 2026-06-01 (~3.8σ vs typical 1d vol). Target date 2026-06-01 reached; move through 2026-06-01 observed. Confidence 100%. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-06-02: +12.3% from 2026-05-28 (~3.8σ). Target date 2026-06-01 reached; move through 2026-06-02 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-06-03: +12.3% from 2026-05-28 (~3.8σ). Target date 2026-06-01 reached; move through 2026-06-03 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-06-04: +12.3% from 2026-05-28 (~3.8σ). Target date 2026-06-01 reached; move through 2026-06-04 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-06-05: +12.3% from 2026-05-28 (~3.8σ). Target date 2026-06-01 reached; move through 2026-06-05 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-06-08: +12.3% from 2026-05-28 (~3.8σ). Target date 2026-06-01 reached; move through 2026-06-08 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-06-09: +12.3% from 2026-05-28 (~3.8σ). Target date 2026-06-01 reached; move through 2026-06-09 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-06-10: +12.3% from 2026-05-28 (~3.8σ). Target date 2026-06-01 reached; move through 2026-06-10 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-06-11: +12.3% from 2026-05-28 (~3.8σ). Target date 2026-06-01 reached; move through 2026-06-11 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-06-12: +12.3% from 2026-05-28 (~3.8σ). Target date 2026-06-01 reached; move through 2026-06-12 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-06-15: +12.3% from 2026-05-28 (~3.8σ). Target date 2026-06-01 reached; move through 2026-06-15 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-06-16: +12.3% from 2026-05-28 (~3.8σ). Target date 2026-06-01 reached; move through 2026-06-16 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-06-17: +12.3% from 2026-05-28 (~3.8σ). Target date 2026-06-01 reached; move through 2026-06-17 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-06-18: +12.3% from 2026-05-28 (~3.8σ). Target date 2026-06-01 reached; move through 2026-06-18 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-06-19: +12.3% from 2026-05-28 (~3.8σ). Target date 2026-06-01 reached; move through 2026-06-19 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-06-23: +12.3% from 2026-05-28 (~3.8σ). Target date 2026-06-01 reached; move through 2026-06-23 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-06-25: +12.3% from 2026-05-28 (~3.8σ). Target date 2026-06-01 reached; move through 2026-06-25 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-06-26: +12.3% from 2026-05-28 (~3.8σ). Target date 2026-06-01 reached; move through 2026-06-26 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-06-29: +12.3% from 2026-05-28 (~3.8σ). Target date 2026-06-01 reached; move through 2026-06-29 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-06-30: +12.3% from 2026-05-28 (~3.8σ). Target date 2026-06-01 reached; move through 2026-06-30 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-07-01: +12.3% from 2026-05-28 (~3.8σ). Target date 2026-06-01 reached; move through 2026-07-01 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-07-02: +12.3% from 2026-05-28 (~3.8σ). Target date 2026-06-01 reached; move through 2026-07-02 observed.
- Fri10Apr
Actual outcome: Bear · $47.51 at outcome
The federal IT efficiency audit triggered immediate concerns regarding public sector contract renewals and potential budget cuts, causing the stock to drop as low as $42.20 and breach the bear floor. While the recent FedRAMP High authorization and AI-driven consumption growth provided some fundamental support, the market prioritized the risk of federal spending consolidation, leaving the price stagnant near the bear floor by the run date.
The federal IT efficiency audit triggered immediate concerns regarding public sector contract renewals and potential budget cuts, causing the stock to drop as low as $42.20 and breach the bear floor. While the recent FedRAMP High authorization and AI-driven consumption growth provided some fundamental support, the market prioritized the risk of federal spending consolidation, leaving the price stagnant near the bear floor by the run date.
