EVLVEvolv Technologies Holdings, Inc.
The Read
8% declines after mixed Q4 2025 results and strong Q1 2026 growth that still disappointed lofty expectations.
The schedule
- Tue20Oct
Assuming a $4.90 base, the late-year institutional buying season is a prime window for hospital and stadium deployments. Major contract wins could propel the stock to $5.60, while a sluggish order book leaves it vulnerable to $4.30.
- Tue8Dec
Entering the Q3 print at $5.60, the focus shifts to the 2027 ARR pipeline. Robust guidance targets $6.20, but EVLV's history of disappointing on forward outlooks threatens a pullback to $4.70.
- Tue15Dec
With a $4.70 base, EVLV faces lingering privacy and bias scrutiny regarding its AI detection algorithms. Clearing regulatory hurdles targets a $5.10 relief rally, but FTC or state-level investigations could impair the stock to $4.00.
- Tue9Feb
Anchoring at $4.00, EVLV's Q4 print and full-year 2027 guidance are make-or-break. Reversing the unprofitability narrative and showing operating leverage could drive a rally to $4.70, while weak FY2027 ARR targets risk a drop to $3.20.
- Mon10May
Starting from $3.20, the Q1 2027 print will test the durability of EVLV's balance sheet and growth model. A re-acceleration signals survival and targets $3.80, while continued cash burn could plunge the stock to $2.60.
Past
- Thu24Sep
Projecting a $5.80 base, EVLV's $56M cash against a -$8.1M FCF burn rate raises dilution risks over the medium term. Avoiding a raise or securing non-dilutive capital could spark a relief rally to $6.10, while an announced ATM program could capitulate shares to $4.90.
- Thu6Aug
Actual outcome: Bear · $5.76 at outcome
Despite Evolv Technologies reporting a strong second quarter—featuring a narrower-than-expected loss of $0.05 per share, 34% year-over-year revenue growth, and a raised 2026 outlook—the stock declined. The anticipated federal funding announcements for school safety and public security did not materialize, causing shares to slide below the $5.80 bear floor as the market looked past the positive earnings beat.
With President Trump's administration potentially pushing for expanded federal grants for law enforcement and school security, EVLV's AI weapons detection systems are well-positioned. A favorable funding announcement could drive the stock from $6.38 to $6.95, whereas exclusion or delays risks a slide to $5.80.
- Tue9Jun
Actual outcome: Mixed · $5.92 at outcome
Evolv reported in-line EPS and hosted its Investor Day to provide strategic updates to investors. Additionally, the company announced that its Evolv eXpedite system achieved SAFETY Act Designation, joining Evolv Express as a Qualified Anti-Terrorism Technology. While the initial price reaction was muted, these positive product milestones and long-term updates ultimately drove shares toward the bull target in the following weeks.
Evolv reports Q2 results with an extremely high hurdle given its 6.5x P/S multiple and ongoing cash burn.
- Tue12May
Actual outcome: Bear · $5.62 at outcome
Evolv reported a solid Q1 2026, beating EPS estimates with a $0.03 per share loss and delivering 45% year-over-year revenue growth while raising its full-year outlook. Despite these strong headline results, the stock plummeted over 19% and broke below the bear floor, as the print failed to satisfy high market expectations and justify the company's rich valuation, triggering a sharp sell-off.
Q1 2026 results will be the first checkpoint after the disappointing Q4 2025 print, with the market focused on whether Evolv can re-accelerate ARR growth and sustain recent margin improvements to justify a rich P/S multiple around $6.52.
- Tue10Mar
Actual outcome: Bear · $5.19 at outcome
Evolv Technologies reported Q4 2025 earnings of $0.06 per share, beating some consensus estimates of a loss but only matching others. Despite the positive headline EPS and strong signals of AI security demand, the overall quarterly report was viewed as mixed. This lack of a clear upside catalyst caused the stock to drift lower, ultimately falling below the $5.75 bear floor.
