HCCWarrior Met Coal, Inc.
The Read
HCC historically saw a median absolute move of ~6%.2% on catalysts, with a notable 14.2% rally on strong Q2 earnings driven by higher sales volumes and production outlook upgrades, while a 5.1% decline followed a disappointing Q4 earnings miss.
The schedule
- Wed14Oct
Assessment of trade policy impacts on international steel production and met coal export volumes.
- Wed3Feb
Q3 financial results focusing on Centurion (Blue Creek) mine development costs and schedule adherence.
- Wed5May
Full-year 2026 results and initial 2027 guidance on production volumes and capital returns.
- Wed4Aug
Q1 operational performance review amidst typical spring weather and logistical constraints.
Past
- Tue15Sep
Market evaluation of seasonal Q4 restocking demand from international steel producers.
- Wed5Aug
Actual outcome: Bull · $91.97 at outcome
Warrior Met Coal reported sharply higher Q2 earnings and cash generation, driven by additional sales volumes and lower-cost production from its Blue Creek mine. The stock rallied well past the bull target as management also raised its full-year sales and production outlook, reinforcing strong confidence in the company's operational execution and growth trajectory.
Q2 earnings print evaluating metallurgical coal price realizations and CapEx burn for the Blue Creek project.
- Thu30Apr
Actual outcome: Bear · $86.20 at outcome
Warrior Met Coal reported Q1 2026 earnings of $1.37 per share, meeting consensus estimates and marking a significant improvement from a loss in the prior year. Despite the strong headline results and a revenue beat, the stock fell 4.1% in the days following the release, suggesting the market had already priced in the positive quarter and opted for profit-taking.
Warrior Met Coal reported Q1 2026 earnings of $1.37 per share, meeting consensus estimates and marking a significant improvement from a loss in the prior year. Despite the strong headline results and a revenue beat, the stock fell 4.1% in the days following the release, suggesting the market had already priced in the positive quarter and opted for profit-taking.
- Fri20Mar
Actual outcome: Bull · $88.81 at outcome
The global metallurgical coal pricing outlook for 2026 remained robust, supported by resilient steel demand forecasts that aligned with the bull case. Significant institutional accumulation by Capital International Investors and a majority of 'Buy' ratings from analysts provided the necessary support for the stock to exceed the $88.50 bull target, even as the broader consensus remained at a 'Hold.'
The global metallurgical coal pricing outlook for 2026 remained robust, supported by resilient steel demand forecasts that aligned with the bull case. Significant institutional accumulation by Capital International Investors and a majority of 'Buy' ratings from analysts provided the necessary support for the stock to exceed the $88.50 bull target, even as the broader consensus remained at a 'Hold.'
- Thu12Feb
Actual outcome: Bear · $87.08 at outcome
Warrior Met Coal reported disappointing Q4 2025 results, missing EPS estimates by 29% ($0.44 actual vs. $0.62 consensus). Given the extremely high TTM P/E ratio entering the event, this significant earnings miss triggered the expected multiple compression. The stock price fell below the bear floor of $88.00, settling at $86.28, reflecting the market's negative reaction to the lower-than-expected profitability.
Warrior Met Coal reported disappointing Q4 2025 results, missing EPS estimates by 29% ($0.44 actual vs. $0.62 consensus). Given the extremely high TTM P/E ratio entering the event, this significant earnings miss triggered the expected multiple compression. The stock price fell below the bear floor of $88.00, settling at $86.28, reflecting the market's negative reaction to the lower-than-expected profitability.