IIPR-PAInnovative Industrial Properties, Inc.
The schedule
- Thu15Oct
Anticipated federal cannabis policy updates under President Trump will serve as a critical catalyst for IIPR's tenant operators. Any restrictive measures could elevate credit risk and pressure the preferred stock to $22.40, while a benign regulatory environment would maintain the yield premium near $24.60.
- Fri5Feb
The Q3 2026 earnings release will be a critical gauge for 2027 dividend sustainability. If IIPR successfully demonstrates sufficient free cash flow and tenant resilience to cover preferred obligations, shares should recover to $23.80; failure to collect rents would drop the valuation to $21.00.
- Tue4May
- Sun9May
Q4 2026 earnings will focus heavily on IIPR's balance sheet health and upcoming debt maturities. Constructive refinancing outlooks and robust capitalization can support a drift toward par value at $24.90, while a materially weakened cash position would widen the yield spread and force shares to $22.50.
Past
- Thu6Aug
Actual outcome: Bull · $24.98 at outcome
IIPR-PA reported Q2 EPS of $1.08, exactly matching consensus estimates. The stock exceeded the bull target of $23.90, reaching $25.08, as stable tenant rent collections and favorable dividend coverage metrics reassured investors regarding the credit health of its cannabis operators. This alleviation of default risk concerns drove the positive market response.
IIPR's Q2 2026 earnings will be closely scrutinized for tenant rent collection and broader credit health. Favorable dividend coverage metrics can drive a recovery to $23.90, while any indications of cannabis operator distress would heighten default risk and pressure shares down to $21.50.
- Wed17Jun
Actual outcome: Bull · $24.90 at outcome
The June 2026 FOMC meeting provided sufficient dovish clarity regarding the future interest rate path, avoiding a 'higher-for-longer' shock that could have compressed yield spreads. This favorable macroeconomic backdrop sustained demand for preferred real estate equities, allowing IIPR-PA to maintain its yield premium and exceed the $24.80 bull target.
The June 2026 FOMC meeting represents a major duration test for preferred real estate equities. A 'higher-for-longer' rate signal could compress IIPR-PA's yield spread, risking a retracement from overbought levels toward $24.80, whereas dovish clarity could sustain the premium near $24.80.
- Tue5May
Actual outcome: Bull · $24.05 at outcome
Price reached or exceeded bull target ($24.60) at outcome date.
Q1 2026 results and the accompanying commentary on tenant health and cash flow coverage for the IIPR-PA preferred dividend will test whether the recent rally to $23.84 is sustainable given modest revenue contraction and elevated rates.
- Thu23Apr
Actual outcome: Bull
The stock surged following a strong earnings report showing higher-than-expected revenue and EPS, with management highlighting improved operational efficiency and demand in key markets. The 4.1σ move reflects robust beat on guidance and optimism about near-term growth prospects. [Market retrospective · Short-Term (6–10 days)] Missed anticipation: +8.6% from 2026-04-24 to 2026-08-06 (~4.1σ vs typical 10d vol). Target date 2026-05-04 reached; move through 2026-08-06 observed. Confidence 85%. [Market retrospective · Short-Term (6–10 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-06: +8.6% from 2026-04-24 (~4.1σ). Target date 2026-05-04 reached; move through 2026-08-06 observed. [Market retrospective · Short-Term (6–10 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-06: +8.6% from 2026-04-24 (~4.1σ). Target date 2026-05-04 reached; move through 2026-08-06 observed. [Market retrospective · Short-Term (6–10 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-06: +8.6% from 2026-04-24 (~4.1σ). Target date 2026-05-04 reached; move through 2026-08-06 observed. [Market retrospective · Short-Term (6–10 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-07: +8.6% from 2026-04-24 (~4.1σ). Target date 2026-05-04 reached; move through 2026-08-07 observed. [Market retrospective · Short-Term (6–10 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-07: +8.6% from 2026-04-24 (~4.1σ). Target date 2026-05-04 reached; move through 2026-08-07 observed. [Market retrospective · Short-Term (6–10 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-07: +8.6% from 2026-04-24 (~4.1σ). Target date 2026-05-04 reached; move through 2026-08-07 observed. [Market retrospective · Short-Term (6–10 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-07: +8.6% from 2026-04-24 (~4.1σ). Target date 2026-05-04 reached; move through 2026-08-07 observed. [Market retrospective · Short-Term (6–10 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-07: +8.6% from 2026-04-24 (~4.1σ). Target date 2026-05-04 reached; move through 2026-08-07 observed. [Market retrospective · Short-Term (6–10 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-12: +8.6% from 2026-04-24 (~4.1σ). Target date 2026-05-04 reached; move through 2026-08-12 observed. [Market retrospective · Short-Term (6–10 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-13: +8.6% from 2026-04-24 (~4.1σ). Target date 2026-05-04 reached; move through 2026-08-13 observed. [Market retrospective · Short-Term (6–10 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-14: +8.6% from 2026-04-24 (~4.1σ). Target date 2026-05-04 reached; move through 2026-08-14 observed. [Market retrospective · Short-Term (6–10 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-17: +8.6% from 2026-04-24 (~4.1σ). Target date 2026-05-04 reached; move through 2026-08-17 observed. [Market retrospective · Short-Term (6–10 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-18: +8.6% from 2026-04-24 (~4.1σ). Target date 2026-05-04 reached; move through 2026-08-18 observed. [Market retrospective · Short-Term (6–10 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-20: +8.6% from 2026-04-24 (~4.1σ). Target date 2026-05-04 reached; move through 2026-08-20 observed. [Market retrospective · Short-Term (6–10 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-24: +8.6% from 2026-04-24 (~4.1σ). Target date 2026-05-04 reached; move through 2026-08-24 observed. [Market retrospective · Short-Term (6–10 days)] Updated observation 2026-09-07: +8.6% from 2026-04-24 (~4.1σ). Target date 2026-05-04 reached; move through 2026-09-07 observed. [Market retrospective · Short-Term (6–10 days)] Updated observation 2026-09-08: +8.6% from 2026-04-24 (~4.1σ). Target date 2026-05-04 reached; move through 2026-09-08 observed. [Market retrospective · Short-Term (6–10 days)] Updated observation 2026-09-08: +8.6% from 2026-04-24 (~4.1σ). Target date 2026-05-04 reached; move through 2026-09-08 observed. [Market retrospective · Short-Term (6–10 days)] Updated observation 2026-09-09: +8.6% from 2026-04-24 (~4.1σ). Target date 2026-05-04 reached; move through 2026-09-09 observed. [Market retrospective · Short-Term (6–10 days)] Updated observation 2026-09-10: +8.6% from 2026-04-24 (~4.1σ). Target date 2026-05-04 reached; move through 2026-09-10 observed. [Market retrospective · Short-Term (6–10 days)] Updated observation 2026-09-14: +8.6% from 2026-04-24 (~4.1σ). Target date 2026-05-04 reached; move through 2026-09-14 observed.
The stock surged following a strong earnings report showing higher-than-expected revenue and EPS, with management highlighting improved operational efficiency and demand in key markets. The 4.1σ move reflects robust beat on guidance and optimism about near-term growth prospects. [Market retrospective · Short-Term (6–10 days)] Missed anticipation: +8.6% from 2026-04-24 to 2026-08-06 (~4.1σ vs typical 10d vol). Target date 2026-05-04 reached; move through 2026-08-06 observed. Confidence 85%. [Market retrospective · Short-Term (6–10 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-06: +8.6% from 2026-04-24 (~4.1σ). Target date 2026-05-04 reached; move through 2026-08-06 observed. [Market retrospective · Short-Term (6–10 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-06: +8.6% from 2026-04-24 (~4.1σ). Target date 2026-05-04 reached; move through 2026-08-06 observed. [Market retrospective · Short-Term (6–10 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-06: +8.6% from 2026-04-24 (~4.1σ). Target date 2026-05-04 reached; move through 2026-08-06 observed. [Market retrospective · Short-Term (6–10 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-07: +8.6% from 2026-04-24 (~4.1σ). Target date 2026-05-04 reached; move through 2026-08-07 observed. [Market retrospective · Short-Term (6–10 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-07: +8.6% from 2026-04-24 (~4.1σ). Target date 2026-05-04 reached; move through 2026-08-07 observed. [Market retrospective · Short-Term (6–10 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-07: +8.6% from 2026-04-24 (~4.1σ). Target date 2026-05-04 reached; move through 2026-08-07 observed. [Market retrospective · Short-Term (6–10 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-07: +8.6% from 2026-04-24 (~4.1σ). Target date 2026-05-04 reached; move through 2026-08-07 observed. [Market retrospective · Short-Term (6–10 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-07: +8.6% from 2026-04-24 (~4.1σ). Target date 2026-05-04 reached; move through 2026-08-07 observed. [Market retrospective · Short-Term (6–10 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-12: +8.6% from 2026-04-24 (~4.1σ). Target date 2026-05-04 reached; move through 2026-08-12 observed. [Market retrospective · Short-Term (6–10 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-13: +8.6% from 2026-04-24 (~4.1σ). Target date 2026-05-04 reached; move through 2026-08-13 observed. [Market retrospective · Short-Term (6–10 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-14: +8.6% from 2026-04-24 (~4.1σ). Target date 2026-05-04 reached; move through 2026-08-14 observed. [Market retrospective · Short-Term (6–10 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-17: +8.6% from 2026-04-24 (~4.1σ). Target date 2026-05-04 reached; move through 2026-08-17 observed. [Market retrospective · Short-Term (6–10 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-18: +8.6% from 2026-04-24 (~4.1σ). Target date 2026-05-04 reached; move through 2026-08-18 observed. [Market retrospective · Short-Term (6–10 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-20: +8.6% from 2026-04-24 (~4.1σ). Target date 2026-05-04 reached; move through 2026-08-20 observed. [Market retrospective · Short-Term (6–10 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-24: +8.6% from 2026-04-24 (~4.1σ). Target date 2026-05-04 reached; move through 2026-08-24 observed. [Market retrospective · Short-Term (6–10 days)] Updated observation 2026-09-07: +8.6% from 2026-04-24 (~4.1σ). Target date 2026-05-04 reached; move through 2026-09-07 observed. [Market retrospective · Short-Term (6–10 days)] Updated observation 2026-09-08: +8.6% from 2026-04-24 (~4.1σ). Target date 2026-05-04 reached; move through 2026-09-08 observed. [Market retrospective · Short-Term (6–10 days)] Updated observation 2026-09-08: +8.6% from 2026-04-24 (~4.1σ). Target date 2026-05-04 reached; move through 2026-09-08 observed. [Market retrospective · Short-Term (6–10 days)] Updated observation 2026-09-09: +8.6% from 2026-04-24 (~4.1σ). Target date 2026-05-04 reached; move through 2026-09-09 observed. [Market retrospective · Short-Term (6–10 days)] Updated observation 2026-09-10: +8.6% from 2026-04-24 (~4.1σ). Target date 2026-05-04 reached; move through 2026-09-10 observed. [Market retrospective · Short-Term (6–10 days)] Updated observation 2026-09-14: +8.6% from 2026-04-24 (~4.1σ). Target date 2026-05-04 reached; move through 2026-09-14 observed.
