INBKFirst Internet Bancorp
The Read
Historically, INBK’s merger-related moves around June 15 have averaged about a 5.
The schedule
- Thu15Oct
Market assessment of shifting macroeconomic conditions, balancing potential regulatory rollbacks under the Trump Administration against the impact of sticky inflation and tariff policies on INBK's funding costs.
- Wed11Nov
Q3 2026 earnings announcement focusing on net interest margin (NIM) stabilization, deposit beta pressure, and commercial real estate (CRE) portfolio health.
- Thu10Dec
Evaluation of INBK's capital return strategies, including dividend sustainability, share buybacks, or speculative M&A involvement within the regional banking sector.
- Sun14Feb
Release of Q4 2026 results and forward-looking guidance for FY 2027, with a critical focus on loan volume growth and structural margin resilience.
- Wed5May
First-quarter 2027 earnings report evaluating seasonal loan origination strength and updated commercial real estate exposure metrics.
- Wed4Aug
Mid-year earnings assessment evaluating full-year momentum, capital adequacy, and the integration of any digital origination strategies.
Past
- Thu30Jul
Actual outcome: Bull
First Internet Bancorp reported second-quarter 2026 financial results, posting earnings per share of $0.27, significantly beating consensus estimates of $0.03 and up from $0.02 per share in the prior-year period. Results were supported by significant improvements in credit quality, including a reduction in provisions for credit losses to $13.4 million. The large earnings surprise and positive credit metrics drove strong investor enthusiasm over the session. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Missed anticipation: +12.1% from 2026-07-30 to 2026-08-03 (~4.6σ vs typical 1d vol). Target date 2026-08-03 reached; move through 2026-08-03 observed. Confidence 95%. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-04: +12.1% from 2026-07-30 (~4.6σ). Target date 2026-08-03 reached; move through 2026-08-04 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-05: +12.1% from 2026-07-30 (~4.6σ). Target date 2026-08-03 reached; move through 2026-08-05 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-06: +12.1% from 2026-07-30 (~4.6σ). Target date 2026-08-03 reached; move through 2026-08-06 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-06: +12.1% from 2026-07-30 (~4.6σ). Target date 2026-08-03 reached; move through 2026-08-06 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-06: +12.1% from 2026-07-30 (~4.6σ). Target date 2026-08-03 reached; move through 2026-08-06 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-06: +12.1% from 2026-07-30 (~4.6σ). Target date 2026-08-03 reached; move through 2026-08-06 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-06: +12.1% from 2026-07-30 (~4.6σ). Target date 2026-08-03 reached; move through 2026-08-06 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-07: +12.1% from 2026-07-30 (~4.6σ). Target date 2026-08-03 reached; move through 2026-08-07 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-07: +12.1% from 2026-07-30 (~4.6σ). Target date 2026-08-03 reached; move through 2026-08-07 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-07: +12.1% from 2026-07-30 (~4.6σ). Target date 2026-08-03 reached; move through 2026-08-07 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-07: +12.1% from 2026-07-30 (~4.6σ). Target date 2026-08-03 reached; move through 2026-08-07 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-07: +12.1% from 2026-07-30 (~4.6σ). Target date 2026-08-03 reached; move through 2026-08-07 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-12: +12.1% from 2026-07-30 (~4.6σ). Target date 2026-08-03 reached; move through 2026-08-12 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-13: +12.1% from 2026-07-30 (~4.6σ). Target date 2026-08-03 reached; move through 2026-08-13 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-14: +12.1% from 2026-07-30 (~4.6σ). Target date 2026-08-03 reached; move through 2026-08-14 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-17: +12.1% from 2026-07-30 (~4.6σ). Target date 2026-08-03 reached; move through 2026-08-17 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-18: +12.1% from 2026-07-30 (~4.6σ). Target date 2026-08-03 reached; move through 2026-08-18 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-20: +12.1% from 2026-07-30 (~4.6σ). Target date 2026-08-03 reached; move through 2026-08-20 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-24: +12.1% from 2026-07-30 (~4.6σ). Target date 2026-08-03 reached; move through 2026-08-24 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-09-07: +12.1% from 2026-07-30 (~4.6σ). Target date 2026-08-03 reached; move through 2026-09-07 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-09-08: +12.1% from 2026-07-30 (~4.6σ). Target date 2026-08-03 reached; move through 2026-09-08 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-09-08: +12.1% from 2026-07-30 (~4.6σ). Target date 2026-08-03 reached; move through 2026-09-08 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-09-09: +12.1% from 2026-07-30 (~4.6σ). Target date 2026-08-03 reached; move through 2026-09-09 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-09-10: +12.1% from 2026-07-30 (~4.6σ). Target date 2026-08-03 reached; move through 2026-09-10 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-09-10: +12.1% from 2026-07-30 (~4.6σ). Target date 2026-08-03 reached; move through 2026-09-10 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-09-14: +12.1% from 2026-07-30 (~4.6σ). Target date 2026-08-03 reached; move through 2026-09-14 observed.
First Internet Bancorp reported second-quarter 2026 financial results, posting earnings per share of $0.27, significantly beating consensus estimates of $0.03 and up from $0.02 per share in the prior-year period. Results were supported by significant improvements in credit quality, including a reduction in provisions for credit losses to $13.4 million. The large earnings surprise and positive credit metrics drove strong investor enthusiasm over the session. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Missed anticipation: +12.1% from 2026-07-30 to 2026-08-03 (~4.6σ vs typical 1d vol). Target date 2026-08-03 reached; move through 2026-08-03 observed. Confidence 95%. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-04: +12.1% from 2026-07-30 (~4.6σ). Target date 2026-08-03 reached; move through 2026-08-04 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-05: +12.1% from 2026-07-30 (~4.6σ). Target date 2026-08-03 reached; move through 2026-08-05 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-06: +12.1% from 2026-07-30 (~4.6σ). Target date 2026-08-03 reached; move through 2026-08-06 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-06: +12.1% from 2026-07-30 (~4.6σ). Target date 2026-08-03 reached; move through 2026-08-06 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-06: +12.1% from 2026-07-30 (~4.6σ). Target date 2026-08-03 reached; move through 2026-08-06 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-06: +12.1% from 2026-07-30 (~4.6σ). Target date 2026-08-03 reached; move through 2026-08-06 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-06: +12.1% from 2026-07-30 (~4.6σ). Target date 2026-08-03 reached; move through 2026-08-06 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-07: +12.1% from 2026-07-30 (~4.6σ). Target date 2026-08-03 reached; move through 2026-08-07 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-07: +12.1% from 2026-07-30 (~4.6σ). Target date 2026-08-03 reached; move through 2026-08-07 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-07: +12.1% from 2026-07-30 (~4.6σ). Target date 2026-08-03 reached; move through 2026-08-07 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-07: +12.1% from 2026-07-30 (~4.6σ). Target date 2026-08-03 reached; move through 2026-08-07 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-07: +12.1% from 2026-07-30 (~4.6σ). Target date 2026-08-03 reached; move through 2026-08-07 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-12: +12.1% from 2026-07-30 (~4.6σ). Target date 2026-08-03 reached; move through 2026-08-12 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-13: +12.1% from 2026-07-30 (~4.6σ). Target date 2026-08-03 reached; move through 2026-08-13 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-14: +12.1% from 2026-07-30 (~4.6σ). Target date 2026-08-03 reached; move through 2026-08-14 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-17: +12.1% from 2026-07-30 (~4.6σ). Target date 2026-08-03 reached; move through 2026-08-17 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-18: +12.1% from 2026-07-30 (~4.6σ). Target date 2026-08-03 reached; move through 2026-08-18 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-20: +12.1% from 2026-07-30 (~4.6σ). Target date 2026-08-03 reached; move through 2026-08-20 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-24: +12.1% from 2026-07-30 (~4.6σ). Target date 2026-08-03 reached; move through 2026-08-24 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-09-07: +12.1% from 2026-07-30 (~4.6σ). Target date 2026-08-03 reached; move through 2026-09-07 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-09-08: +12.1% from 2026-07-30 (~4.6σ). Target date 2026-08-03 reached; move through 2026-09-08 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-09-08: +12.1% from 2026-07-30 (~4.6σ). Target date 2026-08-03 reached; move through 2026-09-08 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-09-09: +12.1% from 2026-07-30 (~4.6σ). Target date 2026-08-03 reached; move through 2026-09-09 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-09-10: +12.1% from 2026-07-30 (~4.6σ). Target date 2026-08-03 reached; move through 2026-09-10 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-09-10: +12.1% from 2026-07-30 (~4.6σ). Target date 2026-08-03 reached; move through 2026-09-10 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-09-14: +12.1% from 2026-07-30 (~4.6σ). Target date 2026-08-03 reached; move through 2026-09-14 observed.
- Mon15Jun
Actual outcome: Bull · $28.59 at outcome
First Internet Bancorp declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.06 per common share shortly after the event date. This dividend declaration signaled financial stability and management's confidence in the bank's ongoing digital origination and deposit growth strategies, driving the stock up 11.3% to comfortably exceed the bull target.
Mid-2026 updates on INBK’s digital origination, deposit growth, and customer acquisition metrics will frame how durable its online banking franchise is as competition intensifies. From a base level of $25.00 after Q1 earnings, evidence of profitable digital growth and stable funding could push the shares toward $26.50, while weaker customer metrics or rising deposit costs would likely pull the stock back toward $26.50.
- Wed6May
Actual outcome: Bear · $22.92 at outcome
First Internet Bancorp reported Q1 2026 results that featured a 26% increase in net interest income and an earnings beat against consensus estimates. Despite the positive revenue momentum and bottom-line performance, the stock fell 8.9% by the outcome date, moving toward the bear case as the headline results failed to generate sustained buying pressure.
Q1 2026 earnings are the first look at whether INBK can sustain the post-Q4 2025 profitability rebound while managing higher credit costs in specific portfolios. At a base price of $22.86, a clean print with stable net interest margin and contained provisions could support a move toward $25.00, while any relapse in credit quality or margin compression would likely drag the stock back toward $25.00 as investors fade the recent rally from near the 52-week lows.
- Fri20Mar
Actual outcome: Bull · $23.14 at outcome
First Internet Bancorp maintained its quarterly cash dividend of $0.06 per share, signaling underlying financial stability despite broader market anxieties surrounding regional bank CRE exposure and the FOMC's interest rate trajectory. The absence of negative credit developments, combined with strategic hires to expand SBA loan volume, alleviated bear-case fears and allowed the stock to rally near the bull target by the run date.
FOMC decision confirms the path for interest rates. A 'higher for longer' policy increases risk of NIM compression and heightens anxiety over regional bank CRE exposure, especially following INBK's large Q3 2025 loss.