PMTPennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust
The Read
PMT has historically reacted to macro and earnings catalysts with median absolute moves of about 5%.
The schedule
- Wed28Oct
Q3 2026 earnings will focus on core EPS stabilization and book value updates from the $9.30 anchor following a turbulent macro summer.
- Tue9Feb
The Q4 2026 print and initial 2027 guidance arrive as the mortgage market digests the stabilized interest rate regime, testing the $8.80 base level.
- Tue4May
PMT's Q1 2027 results will validate whether the strategic overhaul has restored organic book value growth, building from the $9.60 baseline.
Past
- Wed16Sep
The September FOMC meeting under the Trump administration will test the mREIT sector's interest rate sensitivity and book value trajectory from a $9.80 baseline.
- Thu6Aug
Actual outcome: Bear · $9.45 at outcome
PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust reported Q2 EPS of $0.23, missing consensus estimates of $0.30 and remaining well below its $0.40 dividend payout. This persistent earnings shortfall intensified market fears of an impending dividend reduction, prompting a downgrade to a Strong Sell and driving the stock below the bear floor.
Q2 2026 earnings face acute scrutiny following Q1's $0.16 EPS that woefully missed the $0.40 dividend. With PMT trading at $10.90, the threat of a dividend reduction is paramount.
- Wed17Jun
Actual outcome: Bear · $9.94 at outcome
Despite PennyMac maintaining its $0.40 per share quarterly dividend and advancing a $423.2 million RMBS transaction, the stock traded down to the bear floor following the June FOMC meeting. The Fed's rate trajectory likely failed to deliver the favorable yield curve steepening investors anticipated, keeping near-term pressure on the company's funding costs and MBS spreads.
The June FOMC meeting will dictate short-term rate expectations, heavily influencing PMT's funding costs and MBS spreads. With spot at $10.18, a favorable steepening could push the stock to $10.60, while hawkish surprises risk a drop to $9.80.
- Tue5May
Actual outcome: Bear · $10.46 at outcome
PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust reported Q1 2026 earnings of $0.16 per share, significantly missing consensus estimates of $0.36 per share. The stock fell 13.8% as investors reacted negatively to the earnings and revenue miss, alongside underlying concerns regarding persistent negative net interest income, rising leverage, and declining book value.
PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust reported Q1 2026 earnings of $0.16 per share, significantly missing consensus estimates of $0.36 per share. The stock fell 13.8% as investors reacted negatively to the earnings and revenue miss, alongside underlying concerns regarding persistent negative net interest income, rising leverage, and declining book value.
- Fri20Mar
Actual outcome: Bear · $11.35 at outcome
Following the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting, concerns over higher interest rates and widening credit spreads pressured mortgage REITs, driving PMT's stock toward its bear floor. Although the company maintained its $0.40 per share quarterly dividend, the broader macroeconomic environment of elevated rates and market volatility weighed heavily on the sector's near-term outlook.
- Wed18Feb
Actual outcome: Bear · $12.11 at outcome
PMT reported Q4 EPS of $0.49, exactly matching analyst estimates. Despite meeting headline expectations, the stock fell below the $13.00 bear floor, driven by a negative market reaction to management's forward outlook and underlying portfolio metrics.
PMT reported Q4 EPS of $0.49, exactly matching analyst estimates. Despite meeting headline expectations, the stock fell below the $13.00 bear floor, driven by a negative market reaction to management's forward outlook and underlying portfolio metrics.
