PRVAPrivia Health Group, Inc.
Privia Health Group, Inc. (PRVA) provides healthcare information services, leveraging technology to streamline administrative and clinical workflows for healthcare providers. The company’s next catalyst is the Fall MA Enrollment Trends report on October 15, 2026, which will provide critical insights into the demand for its healthcare IT solutions. This event is expected to influence the company’s near-term performance and market positioning.
- Public fact: Privia Health’s revenue grew by 22.3% year-over-year in 2025, reflecting strong adoption of its digital health tools.
- Past catalysts: Privia Health’s Q4 2025 results and guidance were scored as mixed, with the stock rising 1.2% but falling 4% in the following weeks.
The Read
2% after strong Q4 2025 results and guidance but fell 4%.
The schedule
- Thu15Oct
The Fall MA Enrollment Trends report on October 15, 2026 will provide critical insights into the demand for healthcare IT solutions, particularly in the Medicare Advantage (MA) market. This event is expected to influence the company’s near-term performance and market positioning. Positive enrollment trends could drive demand for Privia Health’s digital tools, while a slowdown could signal a need for cost-cutting measures.
Scouter’s modeled bull path for this event is $24.23, with a bear fallback at $20.19. The bull probability is 50%, indicating a balanced outcome. Historical data shows a slight lean toward bull paths when enrollment trends are positive, but the market’s broader sentiment could influence the final outcome. The key observable tells will be the actual enrollment numbers and the company’s guidance on future demand. If the report shows strong growth and positive guidance, the bull path is likely to materialize. Conversely, if the data is weak or the guidance is cautious, the bear path could take hold.
- Thu5Nov
The Q3 2026 Earnings Release on November 5, 2026 is a high-impact event that will provide visibility into the company’s operational performance and revenue growth. This report is crucial for assessing the company’s ability to meet its financial targets and maintain its growth trajectory.
Scouter’s modeled bull target for this event is $26.54, with a bear fallback at $21.92. The bull probability is 55%, indicating a slight lean toward a positive outcome. Historical data shows that when earnings guidance is positive, the market tends to react favorably, with a slight lean toward bull paths. Recent macroeconomic stability and healthcare sector momentum support a favorable outcome. The key observable tells will be the actual revenue and EPS figures, as well as the company’s guidance on future performance. If the results exceed expectations and the guidance is optimistic, the bull path is likely to materialize. Conversely, if the results are disappointing or the guidance is cautious, the bear path could take hold.
- Tue12Jan
The JPM Healthcare Conference on January 12, 2027 is a high-impact event that will provide insights into the healthcare IT sector and Privia Health’s strategic direction. This conference is an opportunity for the company to showcase its innovations and engage with potential investors and partners.
Scouter’s modeled bull target for this event is $31.60, with a bear fallback at $26.54. The bull probability is 60%, indicating a strong lean toward a positive outcome. Historical data shows that when industry conferences are held, the market tends to react favorably, with a lean toward bull paths. The key observable tells will be the company’s presentation and the reception from the industry. If the presentation is well-received and the industry response is positive, the bull path is likely to materialize. Conversely, if the presentation is lackluster or the industry response is negative, the bear path could take hold.
- Tue9Feb
The Q4 2026 Earnings Release on February 9, 2027 is a high-impact event that will provide visibility into the company’s operational performance and revenue growth. This report is crucial for assessing the company’s ability to meet its financial targets and maintain its growth trajectory.
Scouter’s modeled bull target for this event is $33.18, with a bear fallback at $30.02. The bull probability is 50%, indicating a balanced outcome. Historical data shows a slight lean toward bull paths when earnings guidance is positive, but the market’s broader sentiment could influence the final outcome. The key observable tells will be the actual revenue and EPS figures, as well as the company’s guidance on future performance. If the results exceed expectations and the guidance is optimistic, the bull path is likely to materialize. Conversely, if the results are disappointing or the guidance is cautious, the bear path could take hold.
- Mon10May
The Q1 2027 Earnings Release on May 10, 2027 is a high-impact event that will provide visibility into the company’s operational performance and revenue growth. This report is crucial for assessing the company’s ability to meet its financial targets and maintain its growth trajectory.
Scouter’s modeled bull target for this event is $34.84, with a bear fallback at $31.52. The bull probability is 50%, indicating a balanced outcome. Historical data shows a slight lean toward bull paths when earnings guidance is positive, but the market’s broader sentiment could influence the final outcome. The key observable tells will be the actual revenue and EPS figures, as well as the company’s guidance on future performance. If the results exceed expectations and the guidance is optimistic, the bull path is likely to materialize. Conversely, if the results are disappointing or the guidance is cautious, the bear path could take hold.
- Wed30Jun
The Privia Health Insider Sells event on June 30, 2027 is a medium-impact event that may signal short-term caution. Insider selling activity can reflect management’s confidence in the stock’s future performance.
Scouter’s modeled bull target for this event is $33.18, with a bear fallback at $29.86. The bull probability is 40%, indicating a slight lean toward a bear path. Historical data shows a lean toward bear paths when insider selling occurs. The key observable tells will be the volume and timing of the insider sales. If the sales are significant and occur close to the event, the bear path is likely to materialize. Conversely, if the sales are minimal or occur far from the event, the bull path could take hold.
- Mon9Aug
The Q2 2027 Earnings Release on August 9, 2027 is a high-impact event that will provide visibility into the company’s operational performance and revenue growth. This report is crucial for assessing the company’s ability to meet its financial targets and maintain its growth trajectory.
Scouter’s modeled bull target for this event is $31.35, with a bear fallback at $28.37. The bull probability is 50%, indicating a balanced outcome. Historical data shows a slight lean toward bull paths when earnings guidance is positive, but the market’s broader sentiment could influence the final outcome. The key observable tells will be the actual revenue and EPS figures, as well as the company’s guidance on future performance. If the results exceed expectations and the guidance is optimistic, the bull path is likely to materialize. Conversely, if the results are disappointing or the guidance is cautious, the bear path could take hold.
Past
- Thu6Aug
Actual outcome: Bear · $21.54 at outcome
PRVA missed earnings expectations by a small margin, with EPS actual at $0.0247 versus the estimate of $0.0247, resulting in a 0.0% beat. However, the stock fell 8.2% on the event date, and by the outcome date, it had dropped to $21.54, below the bear floor of $22.50. The price action suggests a bearish outcome, likely due to broader market sentiment and potential concerns about the company's long-term growth prospects despite the positive guidance.
Privia Health released its Q2 2026 results on August 6, 2026, with a focus on shared savings recognition and margin expansion amid recent utilization concerns. The company reported a slight beat on earnings expectations, with EPS at $0.0247 versus the estimate of $0.0247. However, the stock fell 8.2% on the event date, and by the outcome date of August 12, 2026, it had dropped to $21.54, below the bear floor of $22.50. The price action suggested a bearish outcome, likely due to broader market sentiment and potential concerns about the company’s long-term growth prospects despite the positive guidance.
- Thu7May
Actual outcome: Bear · $23.01 at outcome
Privia Health reported Q1 2026 earnings of $0.02 per share, missing consensus estimates of $0.08 per share. Although management highlighted double-digit provider growth, margin expansion, and reiterated full-year 2026 guidance, the bottom-line earnings miss disappointed investors and drove a 4.1% decline in the stock price.
Privia Health reported its Q1 2026 earnings on May 7, 2026, with a focus on utilization and margin expansion. The company reported earnings of $0.02 per share, missing consensus estimates of $0.08 per share. Although management highlighted double-digit provider growth, margin expansion, and reiterated full-year 2026 guidance, the bottom-line earnings miss disappointed investors and drove a 4.1% decline in the stock price.
- Fri27Feb
Actual outcome: Mixed · $24.04 at outcome
Privia Health delivered strong Q4 2025 results, with all operating and financial metrics landing at or above the high end of guidance, including a 38.8% year-over-year increase in full-year Adjusted EBITDA. Despite meeting earnings expectations and reporting robust cash generation, the stock saw a muted reaction, rising just 1.2% as the market digested the results alongside the newly issued 2026 guidance.
Privia Health delivered strong Q4 2025 results on February 27, 2026, with all operating and financial metrics landing at or above the high end of guidance, including a 38.8% year-over-year increase in full-year Adjusted EBITDA. Despite meeting earnings expectations and reporting robust cash generation, the stock saw a muted reaction, rising just 1.2% as the market digested the results alongside the newly issued 2026 guidance.