TLTiShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
The schedule
- Tue3Nov
November 2026 Midterm Elections & Fiscal Policy Shift. Congressional control will determine the scope of President Trump's subsequent fiscal and tax agenda.
- Wed16Dec
December 2026 FOMC Meeting. The final rate decision of 2026 will digest post-election fiscal prospects and year-end liquidity conditions.
- Tue5Jan
Q4 2026 Earnings & Full-Year Distribution Announcement.
Past
- Fri2Oct
Q3 2026 Earnings & Monthly Distribution Announcement.
- Wed16Sep
September 2026 FOMC Meeting & Summary of Economic Projections (Dot Plot).
- Fri28Aug
Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. The Fed's annual summit often serves to reset expectations around the long-term neutral rate (r*).
- Wed5Aug
Q3 2026 Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcement. The size and duration mix of new Treasury issuance will heavily impact the 20+ year curve.
- Wed29Jul
July 2026 FOMC Meeting and Rate Decision. The market will look for dovish signals amid a 4.3% unemployment rate.
- Thu2Jul
TLT's quarterly reporting and Q2 distribution announcement. As an ETF, fundamental P&L is secondary to the underlying fixed-income yield trajectory, anchoring our base at $86.75.
- Wed17Jun
Actual outcome: Bear · $84.24 at outcome
At the June FOMC meeting, newly appointed Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a hawkish message focused on price stability, removing explicit forward guidance and raising market probabilities for 2026 rate hikes. Despite this hawkish shift, TLT traded relatively flat as elevated stock market volatility and inflation fears drove record inflows into bond ETFs, balancing the interest rate risk with strong investor demand for yield.
Scouting Reports
Sticky Inflation and Rising Yields Test Warsh’s New Fed
May 19, 2026
The U.S.-Iran ceasefire initially uncorked a wave of relief across global capital markets, sending broad proxies like SPY into a multi-week risk-on sprint. But beneath the surface, the foundation of t
Read more →
The Ceasefire Repricing: How a Fragile Truce Rewrote the Fed Pivot Narrative
Apr 9, 2026
For the last six weeks, global capital markets have been suffocating under the threat of a severe stagflationary shock. That pressure was suddenly released late Tuesday when a two-week U.S.-Iran cease
Read more →