AG.TOFirst Majestic Silver Corp.
This year, First Majestic Silver Corp. (AG.TO) has to prove it can deliver on the promise of its silver mining operations — and the next catalyst is the FOMC Rate Decision & Macro Outlook on September 16, 2026. The market is anchoring the stock at $29.26, with a bull target of $24.22 and a bear fallback of $18.16, leaning slightly toward the bull path. The Fed’s rate decision and macroeconomic outlook will be a pivotal test, as silver prices are inherently sensitive to macroeconomic clarity. If the Fed signals a pause or easing, the bull case could gain traction. If not, the bear path might take hold — but the market is currently betting on a constructive outcome.
The Read
TO's stock historically moved with sharp declines after earnings guidance signaling weaker production and cost pressures, but rallied when earnings matched expectations and guidance showed resilience against rising costs and volatile silver prices, with a median absolute move of ~12%.
The schedule
No upcoming catalysts on the current packet.
Past
- Tue15Sep
Actual outcome: Bear · $25.63 at outcome
Price reached or fell below bear floor ($26.87) at outcome date.
Next quarter earnings announcement with potential guidance on production and cost trends.
- Fri11Sep
Actual outcome: Bear · $25.63 at outcome
Stock fell 5.5% from event to outcome date, aligning with the bear trajectory.
Announcement of PRET news by SIX Swiss Exchange, potentially impacting market sentiment.
- Thu30Jul
Actual outcome: Bull · $24.25 at outcome
First Majestic's Q2 earnings matched expectations, but the stock rallied due to strong guidance on managing rising All-In Sustaining Costs (AISC) and volatile silver prices. The market interpreted the execution against these challenges as resilient, reinforcing confidence in the company's operational discipline and long-term silver exposure.
- Sun10May
Actual outcome: Bear · $21.89 at outcome
The stock fell 32.2% from the event date to the outcome date, reaching below the bear floor of $23.00. Despite matching earnings estimates, the guidance signaled weaker production and cost pressures, which undermined investor confidence and led to the sharp decline.
