CRCTCricut, Inc.
Cricut, Inc. sells digital cutting machines and design software for personal and small-scale manufacturing. The next catalyst is Jan 8, 2027 — Holiday Sales Channel Checks, which will test the strength of its seasonal demand and retail execution.
- Cricut’s revenue fell 0.5% YoY in the latest quarter, but net margin remained at 15.2%, suggesting cost control.
- The company has a $343.56M equity base and a diluted EPS of $0.19, with a focus on subscription-based revenue.
- No major product launches are scheduled in the near term, though AI tools are already part of its design ecosystem.
The Read
Cricut's stock historically reacted with mixed to bearish moves on macro events and product launches, with a median absolute move of ~10%.
The schedule
- Fri8Jan
The channel checks test the effectiveness of holiday sales strategies and product adoption, contrasting with the last check where B2B expansion was underperforming.
- Tue9Feb
The earnings report will test the company's ability to maintain profitability and guide forward margins, differing from the last print where the guidance cut led to a sharp decline.
- Wed5May
The earnings report tests the company's ability to sustain profitability and guide forward margins, differing from the last print where the guidance cut led to a sharp decline.
- Wed4Aug
The earnings report tests the company's ability to maintain profitability and guide forward margins, differing from the last print where the guidance cut led to a sharp decline.
- Wed3Nov
Past
- Mon12Oct
Actual outcome: Bull
Cricut reported mixed results, missing EPS expectations but providing positive guidance on subscription growth and margin improvements. The stock rallied on strong forward-looking comments about the Access subscription model and its potential to drive recurring revenue, which exceeded initial market concerns. The price surpassed the bull target, reflecting optimism around the long-term strategy and recurring revenue potential.
Updates on the Cricut Access subscription tier, which provides higher-margin recurring revenue to offset lumpy hardware sales, will be a key focal point.
- Tue15Sep
Actual outcome: Mixed · $5.66 at outcome
The stock closed at $5.66 on the outcome date, slightly flat, but rallied to $6.55 by the analysis date, surpassing the bull target. The Q3 promotional activity and consumer demand read-through indicated strong momentum, with positive signs in back-to-school and pre-holiday demand. The stock reacted positively to the sustained consumer engagement and early signals of demand resilience, moving above the bull target as the market priced in the potential for continued growth.
Read-throughs from late summer and early fall promotions will indicate whether the recent EPS momentum can be sustained into the critical back-to-school and pre-holiday window.
- Wed5Aug
Actual outcome: Mixed · $5.83 at outcome
Cricut beat earnings expectations with an EPS of 0.19 vs. estimate 0.19, signaling stability in demand. The bullish move was driven by forward guidance indicating stabilization in demand and strategic developments such as the rebrand and Microsoft designations, which reinforced long-term direction. The stock moved above the bull target, aligning with the positive catalyst despite the initial post-earnings decline.
Q3 earnings will reveal whether the margin expansion seen in Q2 was a one-off or a sustainable trend ahead of the holiday season.
- Tue4Aug
Actual outcome: Bull · $5.46 at outcome
Cricut's launch of the Cricut Maker 5 on September 3, 2026, significantly boosted investor sentiment by showcasing advanced capabilities and expanded material options. This product innovation, combined with the simultaneous upgrade to a Strong Buy rating, likely drove the strong short-term price move. [Market retrospective · Short-Term (6–10 days)] Updated observation 2026-09-10: +36.4% from 2026-07-22 (~4.0σ). Target date 2026-08-07 reached; move through 2026-09-10 observed.
Cricut's launch of the Cricut Maker 5 on September 3, 2026, significantly boosted investor sentiment by showcasing advanced capabilities and expanded material options. This product innovation, combined with the simultaneous upgrade to a Strong Buy rating, likely drove the strong short-term price move. [Market retrospective · Short-Term (6–10 days)] Updated observation 2026-09-10: +36.4% from 2026-07-22 (~4.0σ). Target date 2026-08-07 reached; move through 2026-09-10 observed.
- Wed1Jul
Actual outcome: Mixed · $4.27 at outcome
The stock closed at $4.26, slightly below the bull target of $5.10, but the price has since risen to $6.55, surpassing the bull target. The event lacked specific earnings results or guidance, but the broader market sentiment and strategic initiatives around new product launches and enterprise partnerships likely reinforced investor confidence, driving the stock higher in the long term.
Around mid-2026, Cricut is expected to highlight new hardware, software, or enterprise partnerships, which the market will use to gauge whether the company can reignite growth and deepen monetization of its crafting ecosystem from the current $3.80 base.
- Wed10Jun
Actual outcome: Mixed · $4.41 at outcome
The assessment of evolving trade policies and potential tariffs yielded no immediate changes to Cricut's margin outlook or operational costs. Without concrete developments regarding import duties on consumer electronics and accessories, the stock remained flat as investors awaited further clarity on the regulatory front.
Into mid-2026, investors will reassess Cricut’s exposure to President Trump’s evolving trade and tariff agenda, focusing on how potential import duties on consumer electronics and accessories could pressure hardware and materials margins from the current $4.64 level.
- Wed6May
Actual outcome: Bear · $4.26 at outcome
Cricut reported Q1 2026 revenue of $159.5 million, down 2% year-over-year, and net income of $20.3 million, down 15% year-over-year. Despite beating EPS estimates and growing paid subscribers by 3%, the ongoing decline in product revenue and overall top- and bottom-line contraction overshadowed the earnings beat, driving the stock lower as the company remains in a challenging turnaround phase.
Q1 2026 earnings will be the first read on Cricut’s post-holiday demand and subscription trends after a disappointing Q4 2025, with the stock currently extended at $4.64 and RSI in overbought territory.
- Wed4Mar
Actual outcome: Bear · $4.04 at outcome
Cricut matched EPS estimates of $0.04, but this represented a year-over-year decline from $0.06, signaling a growth slowdown during the critical holiday quarter. Despite the launch of new hardware like the Cricut Joy 2, the stock fell below the $4.20 bear floor to $4.05 as investors focused on the earnings contraction and the absence of a significant upside surprise in the 2026 guidance.
Report for the critical holiday quarter. Focus on high-margin Cricut Access subscription growth and full-year 2026 guidance. Expected strong Net Income growth given recent trends and cheap valuation (P/E ~11.6).
