GDGeneral Dynamics Corporation
General Dynamics Corporation (GD) is a global leader in aerospace and defense, offering advanced systems for land, sea, air, and space. The next catalyst is Oct 23, 2026 — Q3 2026 Earnings Release & FY26 Guidance Update, which will test the company’s ability to deliver strong results amid a tightening defense budget and shifting geopolitical priorities. The market will scrutinize whether GD can sustain its revenue growth and margin expansion, while also signaling confidence in its long-term strategic direction .
- GD reported $51.65B in revenue for the 2026 fiscal year, up 10.1% YoY, with a net margin of 8.1% and $4.19B in net income.
- Free cash flow reached $5.78B in the trailing 12 months, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.32x, reflecting a balanced capital structure.
- Shareholders’ equity stands at $25.62B, with a diluted EPS of $3.14, underscoring the company’s strong earnings power and cash generation.
The Read
General Dynamics' stock typically saw a ~2.7% move on congressional resolution-related catalysts, as seen in its reaction to the September 15 resolution, where the market discounted the event due to weak guidance and broader sector concerns, leading to a bearish decline below the $355.00 floor.
The schedule
- Fri23Oct
Q3 2026 results and updated FY26 guidance against a rich $373.16 starting point, with upside to $387 if backlog conversion and margins stay strong, or downside toward $387.00 if guidance again looks too conservative versus the stock’s valuation.
- Sun15Nov
Expected window for follow-on awards and milestones on key U.S. naval programs, where strong order flow could push GD from $387 toward $405.00, while delays or smaller-than-expected awards would likely see shares fade toward $405.00.
- Mon25Jan
Full-year 2026 wrap-up and initial 2027 outlook, with potential re-rating to $402 if management guides to sustained high-single-digit growth and strong cash returns, or a reset toward $402.00 if the 2027 guide again appears too conservative for a stock at $387.
- Mon15Mar
Potential escalation in Washington scrutiny of defense contractor profit margins and capital returns, which could cap GD at around $376 or drive a de-rating toward $376.00 if concrete limits or adverse policy signals emerge.
- Wed28Apr
Q1 2027 results set the tone for the new year, with room to rebound toward $378.00 from a $338.00 base if growth and margins track the 2027 plan, or drift down toward $378.00 if early execution looks soft or key programs slip.
- Wed28Jul
Mid-year Q2 2027 earnings check, with potential to grind up toward $392.00 if backlog converts smoothly and operating leverage holds, or slip back toward $392.00 if growth momentum fades or defense budget headlines turn more cautious.
Past
- Tue15Sep
Congressional resolution of the FY2027 U.S. defense budget, which could lift GD toward $395.00 if shipbuilding, undersea warfare, and C4ISR accounts are robust, or drag shares toward $395.00 if spending growth slows or procurement priorities shift away from GD’s core programs.
- Wed29Apr
Actual outcome: Bull · $370.60 at outcome
General Dynamics reported Q1 2026 diluted earnings per share of $4.10, significantly beating the consensus estimate of $3.68, on revenue of $13.5 billion which grew 10.3% year-over-year. The outperformance was driven by robust demand and execution in its Marine Systems and Aerospace segments, supported by a strong 2-to-1 book-to-bill ratio and solid cash flow generation. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Missed anticipation: +10.4% from 2026-04-28 to 2026-06-05 (~7.6σ vs typical 1d vol). Target date 2026-05-04 reached; move through 2026-06-05 observed. Confidence 98%. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-06-08: +10.4% from 2026-04-28 (~7.6σ). Target date 2026-05-04 reached; move through 2026-06-08 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-06-09: +10.4% from 2026-04-28 (~7.6σ). Target date 2026-05-04 reached; move through 2026-06-09 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-06-10: +10.4% from 2026-04-28 (~7.6σ). Target date 2026-05-04 reached; move through 2026-06-10 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-06-11: +10.4% from 2026-04-28 (~7.6σ). Target date 2026-05-04 reached; move through 2026-06-11 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-06-12: +10.4% from 2026-04-28 (~7.6σ). Target date 2026-05-04 reached; move through 2026-06-12 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-06-15: +10.4% from 2026-04-28 (~7.6σ). Target date 2026-05-04 reached; move through 2026-06-15 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-06-16: +10.4% from 2026-04-28 (~7.6σ). Target date 2026-05-04 reached; move through 2026-06-16 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-06-17: +10.4% from 2026-04-28 (~7.6σ). Target date 2026-05-04 reached; move through 2026-06-17 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-06-18: +10.4% from 2026-04-28 (~7.6σ). Target date 2026-05-04 reached; move through 2026-06-18 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-06-19: +10.4% from 2026-04-28 (~7.6σ). Target date 2026-05-04 reached; move through 2026-06-19 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-06-23: +10.4% from 2026-04-28 (~7.6σ). Target date 2026-05-04 reached; move through 2026-06-23 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-06-24: +10.4% from 2026-04-28 (~7.6σ). Target date 2026-05-04 reached; move through 2026-06-24 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-06-25: +10.4% from 2026-04-28 (~7.6σ). Target date 2026-05-04 reached; move through 2026-06-25 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-06-26: +10.4% from 2026-04-28 (~7.6σ). Target date 2026-05-04 reached; move through 2026-06-26 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-06-29: +10.4% from 2026-04-28 (~7.6σ). Target date 2026-05-04 reached; move through 2026-06-29 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-06-30: +10.4% from 2026-04-28 (~7.6σ). Target date 2026-05-04 reached; move through 2026-06-30 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-07-01: +10.4% from 2026-04-28 (~7.6σ). Target date 2026-05-04 reached; move through 2026-07-01 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-07-02: +10.4% from 2026-04-28 (~7.6σ). Target date 2026-05-04 reached; move through 2026-07-02 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-07-03: +10.4% from 2026-04-28 (~7.6σ). Target date 2026-05-04 reached; move through 2026-07-03 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-07-06: +10.4% from 2026-04-28 (~7.6σ). Target date 2026-05-04 reached; move through 2026-07-06 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-07-08: +10.4% from 2026-04-28 (~7.6σ). Target date 2026-05-04 reached; move through 2026-07-08 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-07-09: +10.4% from 2026-04-28 (~7.6σ). Target date 2026-05-04 reached; move through 2026-07-09 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-07-10: +10.4% from 2026-04-28 (~7.6σ). Target date 2026-05-04 reached; move through 2026-07-10 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-07-14: +10.4% from 2026-04-28 (~7.6σ). Target date 2026-05-04 reached; move through 2026-07-14 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-07-15: +10.4% from 2026-04-28 (~7.6σ). Target date 2026-05-04 reached; move through 2026-07-15 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-07-16: +10.4% from 2026-04-28 (~7.6σ). Target date 2026-05-04 reached; move through 2026-07-16 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-07-17: +10.4% from 2026-04-28 (~7.6σ). Target date 2026-05-04 reached; move through 2026-07-17 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-07-20: +10.4% from 2026-04-28 (~7.6σ). Target date 2026-05-04 reached; move through 2026-07-20 observed.
General Dynamics reported Q1 2026 diluted earnings per share of $4.10, significantly beating the consensus estimate of $3.68, on revenue of $13.5 billion which grew 10.3% year-over-year. The outperformance was driven by robust demand and execution in its Marine Systems and Aerospace segments, supported by a strong 2-to-1 book-to-bill ratio and solid cash flow generation. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Missed anticipation: +10.4% from 2026-04-28 to 2026-06-05 (~7.6σ vs typical 1d vol). Target date 2026-05-04 reached; move through 2026-06-05 observed. Confidence 98%. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-06-08: +10.4% from 2026-04-28 (~7.6σ). Target date 2026-05-04 reached; move through 2026-06-08 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-06-09: +10.4% from 2026-04-28 (~7.6σ). Target date 2026-05-04 reached; move through 2026-06-09 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-06-10: +10.4% from 2026-04-28 (~7.6σ). Target date 2026-05-04 reached; move through 2026-06-10 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-06-11: +10.4% from 2026-04-28 (~7.6σ). Target date 2026-05-04 reached; move through 2026-06-11 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-06-12: +10.4% from 2026-04-28 (~7.6σ). Target date 2026-05-04 reached; move through 2026-06-12 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-06-15: +10.4% from 2026-04-28 (~7.6σ). Target date 2026-05-04 reached; move through 2026-06-15 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-06-16: +10.4% from 2026-04-28 (~7.6σ). Target date 2026-05-04 reached; move through 2026-06-16 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-06-17: +10.4% from 2026-04-28 (~7.6σ). Target date 2026-05-04 reached; move through 2026-06-17 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-06-18: +10.4% from 2026-04-28 (~7.6σ). Target date 2026-05-04 reached; move through 2026-06-18 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-06-19: +10.4% from 2026-04-28 (~7.6σ). Target date 2026-05-04 reached; move through 2026-06-19 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-06-23: +10.4% from 2026-04-28 (~7.6σ). Target date 2026-05-04 reached; move through 2026-06-23 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-06-24: +10.4% from 2026-04-28 (~7.6σ). Target date 2026-05-04 reached; move through 2026-06-24 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-06-25: +10.4% from 2026-04-28 (~7.6σ). Target date 2026-05-04 reached; move through 2026-06-25 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-06-26: +10.4% from 2026-04-28 (~7.6σ). Target date 2026-05-04 reached; move through 2026-06-26 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-06-29: +10.4% from 2026-04-28 (~7.6σ). Target date 2026-05-04 reached; move through 2026-06-29 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-06-30: +10.4% from 2026-04-28 (~7.6σ). Target date 2026-05-04 reached; move through 2026-06-30 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-07-01: +10.4% from 2026-04-28 (~7.6σ). Target date 2026-05-04 reached; move through 2026-07-01 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-07-02: +10.4% from 2026-04-28 (~7.6σ). Target date 2026-05-04 reached; move through 2026-07-02 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-07-03: +10.4% from 2026-04-28 (~7.6σ). Target date 2026-05-04 reached; move through 2026-07-03 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-07-06: +10.4% from 2026-04-28 (~7.6σ). Target date 2026-05-04 reached; move through 2026-07-06 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-07-08: +10.4% from 2026-04-28 (~7.6σ). Target date 2026-05-04 reached; move through 2026-07-08 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-07-09: +10.4% from 2026-04-28 (~7.6σ). Target date 2026-05-04 reached; move through 2026-07-09 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-07-10: +10.4% from 2026-04-28 (~7.6σ). Target date 2026-05-04 reached; move through 2026-07-10 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-07-14: +10.4% from 2026-04-28 (~7.6σ). Target date 2026-05-04 reached; move through 2026-07-14 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-07-15: +10.4% from 2026-04-28 (~7.6σ). Target date 2026-05-04 reached; move through 2026-07-15 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-07-16: +10.4% from 2026-04-28 (~7.6σ). Target date 2026-05-04 reached; move through 2026-07-16 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-07-17: +10.4% from 2026-04-28 (~7.6σ). Target date 2026-05-04 reached; move through 2026-07-17 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-07-20: +10.4% from 2026-04-28 (~7.6σ). Target date 2026-05-04 reached; move through 2026-07-20 observed.
- Thu29Jan
Actual outcome: Bear · $355.31 at outcome
General Dynamics delivered a beat on Q4 EPS and revenue, driven by strong backlog and Marine Systems performance, but the market rejected the results due to weak 2026 guidance. The forecast projected only modest single-digit sales growth (3.7%), which analysts deemed insufficient to justify the stock's valuation, leading to a sell-off. The stock fell below the $355.00 bear floor to $352.05, reflecting investor focus on the slow growth outlook and external regulatory concerns impacting defense contractor returns.
General Dynamics delivered a beat on Q4 EPS and revenue, driven by strong backlog and Marine Systems performance, but the market rejected the results due to weak 2026 guidance. The forecast projected only modest single-digit sales growth (3.7%), which analysts deemed insufficient to justify the stock's valuation, leading to a sell-off. The stock fell below the $355.00 bear floor to $352.05, reflecting investor focus on the slow growth outlook and external regulatory concerns impacting defense contractor returns.
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