LOCOEl Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc.
The Read
1% post-Q1 2026 despite strong results due to profit-taking near highs.
The schedule
- Thu15Oct
A broader checkpoint for consumer discretionary spending under President Trump's prevailing economic policies and rate environment.
- Fri6Nov
Q3 results will showcase the maturity of LOCO's digital loyalty program and the resilience of its Protein Packed menu.
- Fri15Jan
Management unveils preliminary 2027 CapEx targets, menu innovations, and technological investments at early-year investor conferences.
- Sun14Feb
Full-year 2026 wrap-up and the formal issuance of 2027 EPS and revenue guidance.
- Fri7May
Q1 2027 results assessing seasonal traffic patterns and competitive discounting impacts.
- Fri6Aug
Mid-year financial update focusing on summer promotional success and cash flow generation.
Past
- Tue15Sep
Potential legislative updates or franchisor joint-liability rulings in California directly impacting fast-casual cost structures.
- Thu6Aug
Actual outcome: Bear · $15.46 at outcome
El Pollo Loco met or slightly beat Q2 earnings estimates, reporting higher same-store sales, improved restaurant-level margins, and a raised full-year sales and adjusted EBITDA outlook. Despite these strong fundamental results and evidence that the company successfully navigated recent fast-food wage hikes, the stock experienced a negative post-earnings reaction, falling 5.6% to breach the bear floor.
Fiscal Q2 results will highlight the initial margin impact of recent fast-food wage hikes and El Pollo Loco's pricing power to offset them.
- Tue28Jul
Actual outcome: Mixed · $16.52 at outcome
El Pollo Loco shares saw a muted reaction to its franchise development update, rising just 1.3% by the outcome date. While the company subsequently reported a Q2 earnings beat of $0.30 per share versus the $0.29 estimate on August 6, the lack of major expansion catalysts or significant forward guidance kept the stock range-bound and unable to reach the bull target.
El Pollo Loco provides an update on unit expansion, particularly outside of California where labor costs are less punitive.
- Mon15Jun
Actual outcome: Bull · $16.25 at outcome
El Pollo Loco shares rallied well past the bull target, driven by positive menu developments that overshadowed broader trade policy concerns. The company announced the return of a highly requested menu item, BBQ Black Beans, and introduced new summer offerings including Loaded Quesadillas and Chatacoffee, boosting investor confidence in near-term traffic and sales momentum.
Assessment of Trump Administration trade tariffs and their structural impact on poultry and produce supply chains for the restaurant sector.
- Fri8May
Actual outcome: Bear · $13.30 at outcome
El Pollo Loco reported strong Q1 2026 results, delivering EPS of $0.28 and highlighting continued momentum with same-store sales growth and margin expansion. However, with the stock trading near its 52-week high heading into the print, the positive results were largely priced in. This led to a 'sell the news' reaction, causing shares to fall 5% toward the bear floor as investors took profits despite the solid fundamental performance.
Q1 2026 earnings on 2026-05-06 will test whether El Pollo Loco’s value-focused menu and recent traffic gains can sustain near a $14.01 share price that is close to its 52-week high. A clean print with stable margins and same-store sales should support a move toward $14.75, while any slowdown in traffic or margin compression at this valuation could drive a reset toward $14.75 by 2026-05-13.
- Fri13Mar
Actual outcome: Bull · $11.03 at outcome
El Pollo Loco met EPS expectations of $0.25 and bolstered investor confidence by announcing a bold lineup of new menu tests and a value-focused 'Protein Packed' menu. These strategic initiatives addressed the market's focus on Same-Store Sales and margin management, successfully driving the stock price to the $11.00 bull target.
Release of Q4 results and full-year 2026 guidance. Focus on Same-Store Sales (SSS) and margin management during the critical holiday quarter. Market will assess if cost control initiatives successfully offset inflation.
