MOHMolina Healthcare, Inc.
Molina Healthcare, Inc. (MOH) is a health care provider and managed care organization that operates in the U.S. Medicaid and Medicare markets, offering health insurance plans and managed care services. The next catalyst is Oct 22, 2026 — Q3 2026 Earnings Release, which will test the company’s ability to sustain cost control and meet elevated EPS guidance.
- Molina’s revenue grew 11.7% YoY to $44.57B in 2026, but net margins remain thin at 0.4% TTM.
- Free cash flow of $1.27B TTM suggests operational discipline, though debt-to-equity of 0.36x indicates moderate leverage.
- The company’s ability to control medical costs will be the key to sustaining profitability.
The Read
4% on Q1 and Q2 2026 beats driven by improved cost control and raised EPS outlooks, while a modest 0.
The schedule
- Thu22Oct
This earnings report will test the company's ability to maintain margins and manage its growing Medicaid contracts amid rising healthcare costs and potential regulatory changes. The outcome will also reflect the impact of recent state contract renewals and the company's strategic shift toward managed care.
- Tue9Feb
This report will provide clarity on the company's full-year performance, including the impact of its 2026 Medicaid contract renewals and its progress in expanding into new markets. The outcome will also reflect the company's ability to manage its balance sheet and maintain its net debt/EBITDA ratio.
- Thu22Apr
This report will test the company's ability to sustain its momentum from the previous quarter and demonstrate progress in its long-term growth strategy. The outcome will also reflect the impact of its recent investments in technology and expansion into new markets.
- Thu22Jul
This report will provide a comprehensive view of the company's performance over the past year, including the impact of its 2026 Medicaid contract renewals and its progress in expanding into new markets. The outcome will also reflect the company's ability to manage its balance sheet and maintain its net debt/EBITDA ratio.
Past
- Thu23Jul
Actual outcome: Bull · $194.70 at outcome
Molina Healthcare reported Q2 2026 adjusted earnings of $1.51 per share, beating consensus estimates, and raised its full-year 2026 EPS guidance. The earnings beat was driven by lower operating expenses, which successfully offset weaker premium revenues and declining membership. Despite some initial post-earnings volatility, the raised outlook and effective cost management kept the stock trading above the $192 bull target.
Q2 2026 earnings to verify if the Q1 Medical Cost Ratio (MCR) stabilization was structural or a one-off.
- Thu23Apr
Actual outcome: Bull · $184.99 at outcome
Molina Healthcare reported Q1 2026 adjusted earnings of $2.35 per share, easily beating consensus estimates of $1.57 driven by better-than-expected control over medical costs. The positive momentum was further supported by its May Investor Day, where management forecast a potential fivefold increase in 2029 profits if medical costs remain steady, keeping the stock well above the bull target.
- Wed25Mar
Actual outcome: Bull · $145.88 at outcome
Molina Healthcare experienced bullish momentum after Redwood Capital Management revealed a new $8.5 million stake in the company. This strong institutional accumulation drove the positive stock reaction, outweighing the negative overhang from ongoing shareholder investigations related to the company's previous second-quarter results and full-year earnings guidance cut.
- Tue10Feb
Actual outcome: Bear · $127.53 at outcome
Molina Healthcare delivered a disastrous Q4, reporting an adjusted loss of $2.75 per share (vs. $0.43 consensus) due to surging medical costs and a high 94.6% Medical Cost Ratio (MCR). The stock plunged nearly 30% because management simultaneously issued extremely weak 2026 EPS guidance, forecasting profit at less than half of Wall Street expectations, signaling a failure to control costs. This severe miss and bleak outlook directly contradicted the bull case requirement for strong results and MCR control, driving the price far below the bear floor.
