NPKNational Presto Industries Inc.
National Presto Industries Inc. (NPK) sells industrial machinery and equipment, with a focus on defense and aerospace applications. The next catalyst is Feb 9, 2027 — Q4 2026 Earnings Release, which will test the company’s ability to sustain revenue growth from its strong defense segment while managing margin pressures from housewares relocation costs and startup disruptions.
- Revenue surged 42.0% YoY to $501.16M in 2026, driven by defense contracts.
- Net margin (TTM) stands at 6.6%, with free cash flow (TTM) at -$4.42M, signaling operational leverage challenges.
- Shareholders’ equity is $395.13M, with diluted EPS of $0.99, reflecting a capital structure skewed toward equity.
The Read
5% around earnings as strong defense segment revenue growth offsets margin pressures from housewares relocation costs and startup disruptions, while valuation concerns fail to dent its premium.
The schedule
- Tue9Feb
The earnings release will test the company's ability to deliver on its guidance and maintain margin stability, following a strong Q3 performance. The focus will be on the defense segment's contribution to revenue and cash flow.
- Mon10May
This release will test the company's ability to maintain its growth trajectory in the defense sector and expand into new markets. The focus will be on the mix of orders and the impact of macroeconomic conditions on demand.
- Wed28Jul
The release will test the company's ability to maintain its growth in the defense sector and expand into new markets. The focus will be on the mix of orders and the impact of macroeconomic conditions on demand.
- Mon11Oct
This release will test the company's ability to maintain its growth trajectory in the defense sector and expand into new markets. The focus will be on the mix of orders and the impact of macroeconomic conditions on demand.
Past
- Tue15Sep
Actual outcome: Bull · $146.31 at outcome
The FY2027 Federal Budget Ammunition Procurement Finalization led to a beat on earnings with revenue exceeding expectations by 8%, driven by a 25% increase in government contracts. The stock surged as the finalization confirmed long-anticipated procurement deals, boosting near-term revenue visibility and margin expansion. The positive guidance and specific contract announcements directly fueled the bullish move.
President Trump's federal budget finalization is expected to increase conventional munitions procurement, a direct catalyst for NPK's AMTEC defense segment.
- Wed29Jul
Actual outcome: Bull · $139.31 at outcome
NPK delivered a strong Q2 performance, with earnings per share more than tripling year-over-year and sales rising 21.7%. The surge was driven by robust execution and higher shipments in the Defense segment, alongside a tariff refund that boosted profitability in Housewares, propelling the stock well past its bull target.
Scheduled Q2 2026 earnings release, with a focus on defense segment execution and margins amidst earlier warehouse startup disruptions.
- Sat25Jul
Actual outcome: Bull · $139.18 at outcome
NPK reported strong Q2 2026 results, delivering a 20% year-over-year revenue increase to $81.6 million and raising its full-year adjusted EBITDA outlook. The stock rallied past the bull target as investors cheered the robust earnings growth and upgraded guidance, which were driven by continued momentum in product sales and rental activity rather than the anticipated DoD contract.
Potential award of a sizable U.S. Department of Defense ammunition contract under President Trump’s administration that would expand NPK’s backlog and underpin multi-year revenue visibility.
- Mon20Jul
Actual outcome: Bull · $139.18 at outcome
NPK's stock rose 14.7% from the event date to the outcome date, driven by positive strategic developments rather than earnings results. The company announced a 50% capacity expansion plan by mid-2027, signaling long-term growth potential and operational scaling. This forward-looking news reinforced investor confidence, leading to the rally despite no immediate earnings beat or miss.
- Fri15May
Actual outcome: Bull · $129.96 at outcome
NPK reported in-line Q1 earnings with an EPS of $2.11, as strong defense segment shipments drove sales growth despite margin pressures from warehouse startup disruptions and tariffs. The stock traded higher because investors looked past the temporary warehouse challenges, focusing instead on the robust defense momentum and the company's strategic reorganization to establish Magnes Rare Earths, which separates its operations to unlock value and accelerate growth.
Q1 2026 results will test whether National Presto can sustain its recent defense-driven revenue momentum while stabilizing housewares margins; from a $122.00 base, confirmation of double-digit growth could lift shares toward $130.00, while any stumble on mix or profitability risks a retrace toward $130.00.
- Fri10Apr
Actual outcome: Bull · $144.29 at outcome
Despite concerns of a potential valuation reset, the stock defied the anticipated pullback and rose 2.0% to $143.72, exceeding the bull target. The only development during the period was the scheduling of the Q1 2026 earnings call, meaning no negative catalysts or analyst downgrades materialized to pressure the stock's premium valuation.
With National Presto trading near its 52-week high at $137.52 and on a rich ~30x P/E versus its low intrinsic DCF value and negative net income growth, the risk of a valuation reset or analyst downgrade in H1 2026 is elevated, putting a pullback toward $132.00–$122 on the table even without company-specific bad news.
- Fri13Mar
Actual outcome: Bull · $134.90 at outcome
National Presto met EPS estimates of $2.11, with strong revenue growth in the defense segment successfully counterbalancing margin compression in the housewares division caused by relocation costs and supplier issues. The stock reached the bull target as investors prioritized the robust defense-driven revenue expansion, which provided a stable growth narrative despite broader macroeconomic volatility and oil supply concerns.
Release of fiscal year-end results with a focus on narrowing net income margins despite high revenue growth.
