Expected Moves

Actual outcome: Bull · $1.95 at outcome

NET Power reported Q2 EPS of -$0.23, meeting analyst estimates, but the primary catalyst was a major strategic update. The company announced it is redirecting its near-term development strategy toward unabated, behind-the-meter natural gas generation to supply rapid, reliable power for data centers and other large loads. This pivot toward the booming data center power market provided a clear commercialization path, driving the stock up over 24% and well past the bull target.

Actual outcome: Bear · $1.56 at outcome

Rival clean-energy and carbon-capture firms announced significant commercial contracts and technological advancements during the period, intensifying competitive pressure on NPWR. Without corresponding major contract wins or breakthroughs of its own to offset these developments, investors discounted NPWR's near-term market share prospects, driving the 6.6% decline in the stock.

Actual outcome: Bull · $1.83 at outcome

No escalating regulatory actions or severe penalties materialized regarding the ongoing securities fraud investigation during the target window. This absence of negative legal developments provided short-term reassurance to investors, driving a 5.2% relief rally as the market priced in a less dire immediate outlook for the class-action proceedings.

Actual outcome: Bull · $2.22 at outcome

NET Power reported Q1 2026 EPS of -$0.23, exactly meeting analyst expectations. The stock initially rallied past the $2.15 bull target as management provided a reassuring business update highlighting the company's engineering capabilities and progress in carbon capture, helping to alleviate concerns over previous project delays. While shares retraced to $1.98 by the run date, the in-line financial results and operational stability provided the necessary confidence to support the bull case.

Actual outcome: Mixed · $2.00 at outcome

The stock experienced a muted 0.5% move to $2.00, settling squarely between the bull and bear targets. This lack of significant price action indicates that the company has likely not yet announced a definitive Final Investment Decision (FID) or secured project financing for its first utility-scale plant, leaving the market awaiting concrete updates on the project's status.

Actual outcome: Bull · $1.90 at outcome

NET Power reported in-line Q4 EPS of -$0.23, meeting market expectations. The stock sustained levels above the bull target as management's updates on the FY2026 commercialization roadmap, liquidity runway, and Project 1 timeline reassured investors of the company's operational progress and financial stability.