Expected Moves

Actual outcome: Bull · $16.51 at outcome

Stockholders approved the $16.50 per share buyout offer, and the acquisition by a consortium led by Robert A. Ortenzio and Martin F. Jackson was officially completed on June 30. The successful closing of the transaction solidified the stock at the buyout price, fulfilling the bull case.

Actual outcome: Mixed · $16.44 at outcome

Select Medical reported a Q1 earnings miss driven by higher expenses and weaker patient days, though revenues topped estimates. Despite the fundamental miss, the stock remained flat and anchored near the pending $16.50 per share buyout offer, supported by the expiration of the Hart-Scott-Rodino antitrust waiting period which kept the take-private transaction on track.

Actual outcome: Mixed · $16.29 at outcome

The stock's price action was dictated by a $16.50 per share buyout offer, which effectively neutralized the impact of interest rate and debt refinancing concerns. While the acquisition provides a floor above the bear case, the price remains below the bull target as investors and legal firms investigate whether the offer undervalues the company.

Actual outcome: Bear · $14.90 at outcome

SEM reported Q2 2026 EPS of $0.18, exactly matching consensus estimates. However, the stock declined 7.3% following the release, as the in-line results failed to impress investors who were closely monitoring the company's leverage and MAC conditions.

Actual outcome: Bear · $14.82 at outcome

Select Medical reported Q4 2025 EPS of $0.18, coming in exactly in line with consensus estimates. Without an earnings beat or additional positive catalysts to drive momentum, the results failed to impress investors, resulting in a 7.8% sell-off in the days following the release.