SMGThe Scotts Miracle-Gro Company
The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (SMG) sells lawn and garden products, including fertilizers, seeds, and lawn care tools, to both residential and commercial customers. On October 15, 2026, the company will release an update on its Hawthorne segment and regulatory developments, which could influence investor sentiment and market positioning. This event is expected to provide clarity on the company’s compliance and operational strategies, with recent news suggesting a potential regulatory review .
- A recent SEC filing highlighted ongoing legal investigations into the company’s management, raising questions about corporate governance and shareholder rights.
- Scouter has modeled both bull and bear paths for the upcoming Hawthorne Segment & Regulatory Update, with a 64% chance of a bullish outcome based on historical regulatory catalysts.
- Past catalysts on this name have shown mixed results, with the most recent earnings release resulting in a bearish outcome despite strong financial performance.
The Read
Despite strong Q2 earnings and EPS beats in 2026, Scotts Miracle-Gro's stock fell 11%.
The schedule
- Thu15Oct
Impact: Medium 61 Modeled bull target: $69.00 Modeled bear fallback: $57.00 Bull probability: 64% Why it matters: Update on Hawthorne segment and regulatory developments, which could influence investor sentiment. Scenario notes: Regulatory general catalysts historically lean bullish for Health Care slices, with strong bull probability.
The Hawthorne segment is a key part of Scotts Miracle-Gro’s business, and the upcoming update is expected to provide insights into the segment’s performance and any regulatory developments that may affect it. The company has been under scrutiny for its management practices, with recent news suggesting a potential regulatory review . This update could provide clarity on the company’s compliance and operational strategies, which may have a significant impact on investor sentiment.
The bull path for this catalyst is based on the expectation that the update will provide positive news about the Hawthorne segment and regulatory developments. If the update is favorable, it could lead to a bullish move in the stock, with the modeled bull target of $69.00. However, if the update is negative or neutral, the stock could fall to the bear fallback of $57.00. The bull probability of 64% suggests that the market is slightly more optimistic about the outcome of this catalyst.
The observable tells that would make the bull path the live case versus the bear path include positive guidance from the company, approval of new products or services, or favorable regulatory developments. Conversely, negative guidance, rejection of new products or services, or unfavorable regulatory developments would support the bear path.
- Wed4Nov
Setup at the time: Release of fiscal Q3 2026 earnings, focusing on peak spring season results and Hawthorne segment performance. Modeled bull target (roadmap): $73.00 Modeled bear fallback (roadmap): $62.50 Modeled bull probability (roadmap): 45% Scored outcome date: 2026-08-14 Actual outcome: bear Price at outcome: $60.94 Starting price at analysis: $68.85 Predicted bull target: $73.00 Predicted bear fallback: $62.50 Predicted bull probability: 45% Prediction vs lean: lean matched Price error: -2.5% What happened: The stock fell materially after the earnings release, missing the bull target and falling below the bear floor. While the EPS beat expectations, the stock reacted negatively due to margin pressure from freight costs and underperformance in sales, which raised concerns about underlying growth prospects.
The Q3 Fiscal 2026 earnings release was a significant event for Scotts Miracle-Gro, as it provided insights into the company’s financial performance and the performance of its Hawthorne segment. The earnings release was expected to be closely watched by investors, as it may provide clues about the company’s future performance and the impact of macroeconomic factors on its business.
The bull path for this catalyst was based on the expectation that the earnings release would show strong financial performance, with revenue and earnings exceeding expectations. If the earnings release was positive, it could lead to a bullish move in the stock, with the modeled bull target of $73.00. However, if the earnings release was negative or neutral, the stock could fall to the bear fallback of $62.50. The bull probability of 45% suggested that the market was slightly more optimistic about the outcome of this catalyst.
The observable tells that would make the bull path the live case versus the bear path included strong earnings results, positive guidance from the company, or favorable macroeconomic conditions. Conversely, weak earnings results, negative guidance, or unfavorable macroeconomic conditions would support the bear path.
The actual outcome of the earnings release was a bearish move, with the stock falling materially after the release. The EPS beat expectations, but the stock reacted negatively due to margin pressure from freight costs and underperformance in sales, which raised concerns about underlying growth prospects. The price at outcome was $60.94, which was below the bear floor of $62.50. The starting price at analysis was $68.85, and the price error was -2.5%, indicating that the prediction was slightly off.
- Wed3Feb
Impact: High 00 Modeled bull target: $66.00 Modeled bear fallback: $55.00 Bull probability: 55% Why it matters: Earnings release for Q1 Fiscal 2027, with potential impact from macroeconomic factors and industry trends. Scenario notes: Historical outcomes for similar events show a balanced mix with a slight lean towards bullish.
The Q1 Fiscal 2027 earnings release is another significant event for Scotts Miracle-Gro, as it will provide insights into the company’s financial performance and any macroeconomic factors that may affect it. The earnings release is expected to be closely watched by investors, as it may provide clues about the company’s future performance and the impact of macroeconomic factors on its business.
The bull path for this catalyst is based on the expectation that the earnings release will show strong financial performance, with revenue and earnings exceeding expectations. If the earnings release is positive, it could lead to a bullish move in the stock, with the modeled bull target of $66.00. However, if the earnings release is negative or neutral, the stock could fall to the bear fallback of $55.00. The bull probability of 55% suggests that the market is slightly more optimistic about the outcome of this catalyst.
The observable tells that would make the bull path the live case versus the bear path include strong earnings results, positive guidance from the company, or favorable macroeconomic conditions. Conversely, weak earnings results, negative guidance, or unfavorable macroeconomic conditions would support the bear path.
- Wed3Feb
- Wed5May
Impact: High 00 Modeled bull target: $66.00 Modeled bear fallback: $55.00 Bull probability: 55% Why it matters: Earnings release for Q1 Fiscal 2027, with potential impact from macroeconomic factors and industry trends. Scenario notes: Historical outcomes for similar events show a balanced mix with a slight lean towards bullish.
The Q1 Fiscal 2027 earnings release is another significant event for Scotts Miracle-Gro, as it will provide insights into the company’s financial performance and any macroeconomic factors that may affect it. The earnings release is expected to be closely watched by investors, as it may provide clues about the company’s future performance and the impact of macroeconomic factors on its business.
The bull path for this catalyst is based on the expectation that the earnings release will show strong financial performance, with revenue and earnings exceeding expectations. If the earnings release is positive, it could lead to a bullish move in the stock, with the modeled bull target of $66.00. However, if the earnings release is negative or neutral, the stock could fall to the bear fallback of $55.00. The bull probability of 55% suggests that the market is slightly more optimistic about the outcome of this catalyst.
The observable tells that would make the bull path the live case versus the bear path include strong earnings results, positive guidance from the company, or favorable macroeconomic conditions. Conversely, weak earnings results, negative guidance, or unfavorable macroeconomic conditions would support the bear path.
- Wed4Aug
Past
- Sun9Aug
Actual outcome: Bear · $60.94 at outcome
The stock fell materially after the earnings release, missing the bull target and falling below the bear floor. While the EPS beat expectations, the stock reacted negatively due to margin pressure from freight costs and underperformance in sales, which raised concerns about underlying growth prospects.
Setup at the time: Release of fiscal Q3 2026 earnings, focusing on peak spring season results and Hawthorne segment performance. Modeled bull target (roadmap): $73.00 Modeled bear fallback (roadmap): $62.50 Modeled bull probability (roadmap): 45% Scored outcome date: 2026-08-14 Actual outcome: bear Price at outcome: $60.94 Starting price at analysis: $68.85 Predicted bull target: $73.00 Predicted bear fallback: $62.50 Predicted bull probability: 45% Prediction vs lean: lean matched Price error: -2.5% What happened: The stock fell materially after the earnings release, missing the bull target and falling below the bear floor. While the EPS beat expectations, the stock reacted negatively due to margin pressure from freight costs and underperformance in sales, which raised concerns about underlying growth prospects.
The Q3 Fiscal 2026 earnings release was a significant event for Scotts Miracle-Gro, as it provided insights into the company’s financial performance and the performance of its Hawthorne segment. The earnings release was expected to be closely watched by investors, as it may provide clues about the company’s future performance and the impact of macroeconomic factors on its business.
The bull path for this catalyst was based on the expectation that the earnings release would show strong financial performance, with revenue and earnings exceeding expectations. If the earnings release was positive, it could lead to a bullish move in the stock, with the modeled bull target of $73.00. However, if the earnings release was negative or neutral, the stock could fall to the bear fallback of $62.50. The bull probability of 45% suggested that the market was slightly more optimistic about the outcome of this catalyst.
The observable tells that would make the bull path the live case versus the bear path included strong earnings results, positive guidance from the company, or favorable macroeconomic conditions. Conversely, weak earnings results, negative guidance, or unfavorable macroeconomic conditions would support the bear path.
The actual outcome of the earnings release was a bearish move, with the stock falling materially after the release. The EPS beat expectations, but the stock reacted negatively due to margin pressure from freight costs and underperformance in sales, which raised concerns about underlying growth prospects. The price at outcome was $60.94, which was below the bear floor of $62.50. The starting price at analysis was $68.85, and the price error was -2.5%, indicating that the prediction was slightly off.
- Wed5Aug
Actual outcome: Bear · $62.17 at outcome
Scotts Miracle-Gro reported earnings in line with expectations, but the stock fell materially due to ongoing legal investigations and concerns over margin pressures. The bear floor was breached, indicating investor pessimism about the company's long-term prospects despite the neutral earnings report.
- Wed29Apr
Actual outcome: Bear · $58.81 at outcome
Despite Scotts Miracle-Gro reporting strong Q2 results with a 5% increase in net sales and over 200 basis points of gross margin improvement, the stock declined 5.8% following the release. The positive earnings momentum was overshadowed by negative market sentiment, exacerbated by Jim Cramer labeling the stock 'too risky' and multiple law firms announcing investigations into the company's officers and directors for potential fiduciary breaches.
Setup at the time: Historical catalyst event (from outcomes) Modeled bull target (roadmap): $72.00 Modeled bear fallback (roadmap): $56.00 Modeled bull probability (roadmap): 45% Scored outcome date: 2026-05-13 Actual outcome: bear Price at outcome: $58.81 Starting price at analysis: n/a Predicted bull target: $72.00 Predicted bear fallback: $56.00 Predicted bull probability: 45% Prediction vs lean: lean matched Price error: 5.0% What happened: Despite Scotts Miracle-Gro reporting strong Q2 results with a 5% increase in net sales and over 200 basis points of gross margin improvement, the stock declined 5.8% following the release. The positive earnings momentum was overshadowed by negative market sentiment, exacerbated by Jim Cramer labeling the stock 'too risky' and multiple law firms announcing investigations into the company's officers and directors for potential fiduciary breaches.
The Q2 Fiscal 2026 earnings release was a significant event for Scotts Miracle-Gro, as it provided insights into the company’s financial performance and any macroeconomic factors that may affect it. The earnings release was expected to be closely watched by investors, as it may provide clues about the company’s future performance and the impact of macroeconomic factors on its business.
The bull path for this catalyst was based on the expectation that the earnings release would show strong financial performance, with revenue and earnings exceeding expectations. If the earnings release was positive, it could lead to a bullish move in the stock, with the modeled bull target of $72.00. However, if the earnings release was negative or neutral, the stock could fall to the bear fallback of $56.00. The bull probability of 45% suggested that the market was slightly more optimistic about the outcome of this catalyst.
The observable tells that would make the bull path the live case versus the bear path included strong earnings results, positive guidance from the company, or favorable macroeconomic conditions. Conversely, weak earnings results, negative guidance, or unfavorable macroeconomic conditions would support the bear path.
The actual outcome of the earnings release was a bearish move, with the stock declining 5.8% following the release. Despite the company reporting strong Q2 results with a 5% increase in net sales and over 200 basis points of gross margin improvement, the stock reacted negatively due to negative market sentiment. This sentiment was exacerbated by Jim Cramer labeling the stock 'too risky' and multiple law firms announcing investigations into the company's officers and directors for potential fiduciary breaches. The price at outcome was $58.81, which was below the bear floor of $56.00. The starting price at analysis was n/a, and the price error was 5.0%, indicating that the prediction was slightly off.