Expected Moves

Through the September 2026 FOMC meeting and associated guidance, the market will refine expectations for the Fed’s path into 2027. As a high-coupon 6.375% junior subordinated issue, SRJN at $25.40 is highly sensitive to the long end of the curve and credit spreads: a more dovish path and stable credit conditions could support prices up toward $26.00, while a renewed higher-for-longer stance or widening utility spreads could pressure SRJN back toward $26.00.

Around Spire’s late-2026 investor communications, management is likely to address capital structure plans and refinancing of higher-coupon instruments like SRJN. If they outline a gradual de-leveraging path without near-term adverse action on the 6.375% junior subordinated notes, SRJN at $26.40 could hold a small premium toward $26.50; if management signals accelerated refinancing, structural subordination changes, or instruments that are negative to existing holders, the price could slip back toward $26.50.

Major state utility commission decisions on Spire’s gas distribution rate cases around late 2026 will lock in allowed returns and cost recovery mechanisms that drive earnings and credit quality. If allowed ROEs and cost recovery are supportive, SRJN at $26.00 could see further spread tightening toward $26.40; adverse or delayed outcomes that compress allowed returns or limit recovery of rising costs could pressure the notes back closer to $25.20.

Full-year 2026 earnings and 2027 guidance for Spire Inc. will update the long-term earnings power, capex profile, and leverage trajectory that underpin SRJN’s credit risk. If management delivers stable or improving earnings with a credible plan to fund capex and gradually de-lever, SRJN at $25.50 could firm up toward $26.20; if guidance implies sustained negative free cash flow, rising debt, or weaker coverage ratios, the notes could trade down toward $26.20 to reflect a wider credit spread.