VLOValero Energy Corporation
Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) is a leading player in the oil & gas refining and marketing sector, operating a vast network of refining and marketing assets across the U.S. and internationally. The company generates revenue through the refining of crude oil into petroleum products and the marketing of those products. Its next catalyst is the Oct 29, 2026 — Q3 2026 Earnings Release, which will test the company’s ability to sustain its recent earnings beat and maintain refining margins amid shifting fuel demand and input costs .
- Valero’s refining capacity is at 13 facilities, with Q2 2026 operations running at 95% of capacity .
- The company has a strong balance sheet, with free cash flow of $10.84B in the trailing twelve months and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.39x.
- Valero’s Q2 2026 earnings beat expectations, with EPS of $12.62, and the stock surged past the bull target .
The schedule
- Thu29Oct
- Tue9Feb
- Thu29Apr
- Thu29Jul
Past
- Thu27Aug
Actual outcome: Bull · $433.74 at outcome
VLO posted stronger-than-expected earnings and raised guidance for the medium-term, signaling improved operational performance and demand. The results exceeded analyst expectations, with notable gains in key markets and cost management driving the positive move. [Market retrospective · Medium-Term (11–30 days)] Missed anticipation: +25.2% from 2026-08-27 to 2026-10-09 (~2.1σ vs typical 30d vol). Target date 2026-09-17 reached; move through 2026-10-09 observed. Confidence 95%.
VLO posted stronger-than-expected earnings and raised guidance for the medium-term, signaling improved operational performance and demand. The results exceeded analyst expectations, with notable gains in key markets and cost management driving the positive move. [Market retrospective · Medium-Term (11–30 days)] Missed anticipation: +25.2% from 2026-08-27 to 2026-10-09 (~2.1σ vs typical 30d vol). Target date 2026-09-17 reached; move through 2026-10-09 observed. Confidence 95%.
- Thu30Jul
Actual outcome: Bull
Valero delivered a massive Q2 earnings beat, reporting EPS of $12.62 compared to estimates of $9.87, alongside $44.5 billion in revenue. The stock surged well past the bull target as robust refining margins, strong fuel demand, and gains in renewable diesel and ethanol operations drove exceptional profitability and cash flow.
Valero delivered a massive Q2 earnings beat, reporting EPS of $12.62 compared to estimates of $9.87, alongside $44.5 billion in revenue. The stock surged well past the bull target as robust refining margins, strong fuel demand, and gains in renewable diesel and ethanol operations drove exceptional profitability and cash flow.
- Thu23Apr
Actual outcome: Bull · $240.27 at outcome
Valero met Q1 EPS expectations exactly at $3.74, but the stock pushed past the bull target due to a highly favorable macroeconomic environment. Sustained high crack spreads, rising diesel prices, and the successful partial restart of its Port Arthur refinery reinforced strong cash flow and capital return prospects, driving bullish momentum.
Valero met Q1 EPS expectations exactly at $3.74, but the stock pushed past the bull target due to a highly favorable macroeconomic environment. Sustained high crack spreads, rising diesel prices, and the successful partial restart of its Port Arthur refinery reinforced strong cash flow and capital return prospects, driving bullish momentum.
- Thu29Jan
Actual outcome: Mixed · $180.22 at outcome
Valero reported Q4 2025 EPS of $3.74, exactly matching consensus estimates. Although the initial price reaction was a muted 1.2% decline, the in-line earnings and stable outlook provided a solid foundation, ultimately driving the stock significantly higher to surpass the bull target in the subsequent months.
Valero reported Q4 2025 EPS of $3.74, exactly matching consensus estimates. Although the initial price reaction was a muted 1.2% decline, the in-line earnings and stable outlook provided a solid foundation, ultimately driving the stock significantly higher to surpass the bull target in the subsequent months.
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