XOMExxon Mobil Corporation
This is the year Exxon Mobil has to prove it can still move the needle in a market that’s been increasingly skeptical of energy stocks. The next catalyst — Fall Energy Policy & Regulation on 2026-09-15 — is the first of several critical tests that will anchor the stock at $162.24, with a bull path to $151.22 and a bear path to $137.20, leaning bull with 68% probability. This isn’t just another policy event; it’s a pivotal moment where regulatory clarity could either reduce valuation uncertainty or trigger a short-term correction. The path ahead is a sequence of tests, each with its own stakes, and the stock is already in a position where it needs to show it can hold its ground.
The schedule
- Mon2Nov
Quarterly earnings report and guidance for Q3 2026
- Tue9Feb
Quarterly earnings report and guidance for Q4 2026
- Mon3May
- Mon2Aug
Past
- Tue15Sep
Actual outcome: Bull · $158.68 at outcome
Stock fell 4.2% from event to outcome date, aligning with the bull trajectory.
Stock fell 4.2% from event to outcome date, aligning with the bull trajectory.
- Tue15Sep
Actual outcome: Mixed · $158.68 at outcome
Price at outcome date was between bear floor ($149.00) and bull target ($162.50).
Price at outcome date was between bear floor ($149.00) and bull target ($162.50).
- Tue15Sep
Actual outcome: Mixed · $158.68 at outcome
Price at outcome date was between bear floor ($145.00) and bull target ($163.50).
Price at outcome date was between bear floor ($145.00) and bull target ($163.50).
- Mon3Aug
Actual outcome: Bull · $152.70 at outcome
XOM reported an EPS actual of 3.48, matching the estimate, and the stock closed at $152.70, surpassing the bull target of $143.50. The positive sentiment around the stock was driven by favorable news about its dividend yield and long-term strategic direction, which reinforced investor confidence despite the neutral earnings report.
XOM reported an EPS actual of 3.48, matching the estimate, and the stock closed at $152.70, surpassing the bull target of $143.50. The positive sentiment around the stock was driven by favorable news about its dividend yield and long-term strategic direction, which reinforced investor confidence despite the neutral earnings report.
- Mon15Jun
Actual outcome: Bear · $137.81 at outcome
The stock fell 2.2% following the OPEC+ Policy Meeting & Supply Geopolitics event, with the closing price on the outcome date reaching $137.81, below the bear floor of $139.00. The market reacted to concerns over global supply dynamics and geopolitical tensions impacting oil prices, which weighed on investor sentiment and led to the downward movement.
The stock fell 2.2% following the OPEC+ Policy Meeting & Supply Geopolitics event, with the closing price on the outcome date reaching $137.81, below the bear floor of $139.00. The market reacted to concerns over global supply dynamics and geopolitical tensions impacting oil prices, which weighed on investor sentiment and led to the downward movement.
- Mon4May
Actual outcome: Bear · $150.63 at outcome
XOM reported an EPS actual of 1, matching the estimate, but the stock fell 2.0% from the event date to the outcome date. The guidance suggested softer demand outlook and margin pressure, which overshadowed the earnings beat, leading to the bearish price reaction.
XOM reported an EPS actual of 1, matching the estimate, but the stock fell 2.0% from the event date to the outcome date. The guidance suggested softer demand outlook and margin pressure, which overshadowed the earnings beat, leading to the bearish price reaction.
Scouting Reports
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